yes, this q1 report is certainly going to be interesting. it will rocket the stock to new highs or it will send it down to test the lowest uptrend support in the high 9's. i get to win either way with my investment strategy, it is just a matter of "how much" i win. if we are disappointed by the report in comparison to a 320 million current market cap (after all swaps, but without a secondary), then i will buy more shares after they bottom. if revenues are huge, then i will add shares immediately. put on your seatbelt. its gonna get bumpy in the back seat! (we're not driving)
According to the 12/06 report cash was at 17 million down from 12/05 level of 19 million. They would seem to be able to go for years with no profits in terms of cash flow.
All inidications are they are not just shipping trial versions and that customers are ramping up. In fact the text of the 12/06 report says a vendor entered volume shipments in Q4 and they expect more to do so in Q1.
So we are currently in a revenue ramp that's for sure. Figuring the slope is tough.
mxlnop, i agree with you. i don't understand the need for our fabless chip company to have a secondary offering either, unless the cash they have won't last them until they feel they will become cash flow positive. it is one of the things that makes me feel chip volume won't hit decent levels until next year and they know it.
sure they will sell a few trial versions to leading edge test clients, but the real volume probably won't start to hit until mid 2008. it is just the feeling i'm getting from what they are and aren't saying at key moments and on key reports. i could be wrong, but that is my gut feeling on it.
I went through the filings and you are correct, the updated share count that 78% refers to is the 15 million number. There is no way to confrim or deny 4 million shares for employees but it's seems niether unreasonably high or low.
As far as a secondary offering...why? This is a fabless company. What will they need the money for, expecially if we are entering a phase with positive earnings? Which all the writing on the wall suggests.
lol@u rc! busted again on this board and bitter bitter bitter.
dinner reservation: "table for one... miss bitter?" lol
you said: "i would show your posts where you were short but..." lol... ummmm, but you can't because they don't exist?!?!?!????? lol@u
and how exactly is the stock going up up up, when it is down down DOWN OVER A BUCK right now? did your boss just curse a lot at you all and throw in the towel dumping those huge blocks totalling about 100k shares?????
lmao@u paid pumpers that aren't effective at all here anymore! down over a buck in a heartbeat!
the last earnings release was for results as of 12/31/2006. there was a swap of shares and a subsequent january 12th sec filing that details it. 3,878,235 new lnop shares were issued to reach the 78% ownership, totalling 15,669,593 amended outstanding shares as of 12/22/2006. gs still hasn't exchanged their ez shares, plus there are employee owned shares according to the author.
15,669,593 / 78% = 20,089,222 shares (but i suspect 78% is rounded and not exact)
then take into account the additional dilution of giving employees shares and the author arrives at 24 million total, which means the employees are being given a little less than 4 million shares apparently.
as far as holding my core position still while being bearish in the short term... i and others have explained this over and over. it is called hedging. i hold those shares for the long term growth of this company in this infant npu industry. i will pay low capital gains taxes on those shares when i cash them in after 2010 or so. it all depends on how the industry develops long term and how ezchip fares within it. i trade the volatile manipulated swings in the meantime to make even more money on my knowledge of this stock and how they work it. i can't speak for anyone else, but this is my opinion. i have learned much of it from mbm and respect his ability to think ahead of others and see what most don't want to see before it is too late. he has been so right over the years and i will thank him personally when all of us longs get together to celebrate triple digits in 2010 or beyond. who knows when a news release will come that announces the acquisition of ezchip by csco or jnpr or alcatel or zte etc. that is why i will always hold my core shares for the long term. it could pop 300% any day. i just don't think it will happen until all exchanges and secondary are done, and ez trades under its own new symbol. my guess is 2009 or later, if ever at all. maybe never at all due to lnop's receipt of israeli government grant funding and the rules associated with such grants in their country. again, another reason i hedge now. i hope that clears it all up for you.
good luck with your shares. if you trade, be careful of the pumpers now (bashers years ago). if you are only buying and holding, i say step back and don't follow it so closely. the manipulated volatility will only drive you crazy.
I got the best of you! soon as you started name calling you lost, I would show your posts where you were short but you have already lost. Now back to your boiler room you lair!
Oh by the way the stock is going up up up up!!!!
LNOP now owns 78% of ezchip and has outstanding shares of 12,043,240 according to the last earnings release.
12,043,240 is 78% of 15,440,051.
Based on that I don't see how the author gets to 24 million.
Second question. If you own the shares at 5-7 and see them way over valued at current prices and getting worse when the ownership transactions takes place, and then an alleged secondary...why are you still holding?
ariel, just to clear things up for you... i'm not the true and best contrarian for the stock. "gruMMan05" is. my name (gruMRNan05) is a somewhat flattering imitation of his, in honor of his great contrarian presence for us traders of lnop. but he does't use that alias much anymore anyway. he has many new ones you can see in one of my posts earlier today.
regarding the "24 million shares", i merely quoted the reporter's article since that is what was being discussed as a "great article". the author seems to know the exact details of who is left owning ezchip shares and how many they hold still. my goal was not to dissect the article but to look deeper into what was printed, by calculating the market cap after all swaps and after an assumed yet reasonable secondary offering amount. that is how i arrived at the soon to be $450 million market cap at current prices.
i hope that helps you understand my post a little better. and regarding your post... i wasn't judging it to be negative. it simply *was* negative in tone at the end. your post ended with a sassy comment about your assumption of my math skills not being very good. you can re-read your post if you don't remember. in any event, i'll assume you are aplogizing for that so we can move forward with the important issues that should be focused on for the good of all readers of this board. regards
you have me confused with your reflection in the mirror. you are in the boiler room and you are hating yourself with great justification. you are paid to deceive others. shame on you. shame on your family. you disrespect them and anyone you supposedly care about by making this world a less trustworthy place. you live on lies and deceit.
your lies about me are not backed by direct links to the posts you claim exist, because those posts don't exist. i have never been short this stock. ever. get a life and get out of the windowless basement you exist in all day and night. do something honest with your life. help others rather than manipulate them and deceive them for profit.