But do you feel that EZchip could still be an acquisition target?
"Yes, of course it could. Looking ahead, the most reasonable scenario is that LanOptics will buy the remaining holdings and reach 100% ownership, and that EZchip will continue to grow as a public company.
he also went on to say that he didn't see the final exchange of shares and lnop 100% ownership of ezchip until at least next year ("as early as next year").
i think goldman and jbk are waiting for profitability and revenues to support the fully diluted fully exchanged share base and market cap.
globes article many weeks ago by lnop long shlomi cohen (sp?) stated fully diluted shares without a secondary offering would be 24 million shares (including employee owned shares which is what i think most calculations are forgetting or don't know about).
24 million fully diluted shares without a secondary offering, times current market price of almost $14 at today's close, puts the future 100% ezchip ownership entity at a market capitalization of.....
24,000,000 x $14.00 = $336 million current market cap with future transactions completed
unless lnop long and globes article auther shlomi cohen (?) is wrong, those will be the facts used for all calculations when all is said and done finally.
dispute it with him and the recent globes article author if you want. but i tend to believe the investigative reporter that has his own money in the company and has done his homework and re-checked it completely.
but that's just me. i tend to follow what people do with their own money rather than believe what they just say when they don't have a stake in it personally. again, that's just me.
smart money tends to think farther out than just a few weeks or even months. i would bet that in january when they cut the deal for the ~900k share block sale while the stock was at $13, it was because avg daily volume was about 50-60k/day and they didn't see getting out of it unless they had cooperation from the biggest mm or two. i'm also guessing that roth capital made a deal with the mm to work the block into the float slowly, and that they would have cooperation from gilder and lnop in addition to hiring the boiler room crew to work here. all imho.
smart money Lnop holders "only have" a few million shares left...those will be absorbed in due time. Lnop is going to be in the "SWEET SPOT" of 10gig ethernet routing for a couple of years and hopefully they don't get taken out for awhile."Did Broadcom approach you or make an acquisition offer to you too before it acquired Sandburst?
"I'd rather not comment on that."
But do you feel that EZchip could still be an acquisition target?
"Yes, of course it could. Looking ahead, the most reasonable scenario is that LanOptics will buy the remaining holdings and reach 100% ownership, and that EZchip will continue to grow as a public company. Another option is that EZchip will be acquired, before or following a full merger with LanOptics."
i'd rather follow smart money because they usually have more knowledge than readers of public releases and message boards. smart money is right the majority of times on small stocks they have incubated. they know the people involved intimately. much better than us little guy individual investors.
you can conlude what you want. i only put out my opinion and the money flow facts so others can consider it and understand the real hidden intraday game. once the shares do fall as i think they will, they will know to watch the warning signs next time and at least be prepared for what smart money is acting on for whatever reason.
Thanks, Glenn. Great article loaded with provocative information straight from the horse's mouth. Nowhere to go from here but up! I expect an upside surprise re. 1st. quarter earnings, but more importantly perhaps, I think the forward guidance will draw a lot of attention and permanently put us on the Wall Street radar screen. RLW
the article doesn't tell us longs anything that we didn't already know and hope for on the positive side. however, i figured that none of you pumpers would be able to see or choose to discuss the negative things that we learned that *are* new (at least, never been discussed here or released from management before)......
here are a few things for you objective readers to consider, so you are prepared for the possibility that the quarterly report won't induce a buying frenzy. this way each of you can choose to do whatever you want to do, but without being blindsided by it and have to think about your actions first......
CEO Fruther's comments to consider:
***In any event, he adds the company should not be judged on a quarterly basis. "If anyone is expecting stable growth, it won't necessarily happen. There could be surges from one quarter to the next.***
- - the first true big surge is what will make the stock jump imho. until then, just more hope.
***Fruchter notes that today two funds remain investors in EZchip - Goldman Sachs and JK&B Capital. "They hold preference shares in EZchip, and if they convert them they will receive ordinary LanOptics shares," explains Fruchter. "I assume that once LanOptics's stock is at a certain price level, it'll be worthwhile for them to convert..... There's a good chance that it will happen as early as next year." Once it does, Fruchter believes that LanOptics will change its name to EZchip and continue trading under its new name.***
- - notice the terms "as EARLY as NEXT year." and "Once it does.... will change its name to EZchip and.... (trade) under its new name."
(maybe next year [not this year], and certainly not after this conference call as many pumpers have eluded to based on more pure hope and hype)
***Two years ago, Eli Fruchter, President and CEO of EZchip Technologies Ltd. said that it was not inconceivable that the company would record revenue of $75 million in 2008. He was still optimistic when he talked to "Globes" last week although this time round he refuses to give figures. "The market we're targeting will reach $250 million in 2008-2009. I expect that we will have a sizeable chunk of it," he predicts.***
- - if the numbers were close to or expected to be better than $75 million in 2008, he wouldn't have refused to give figures this time. Instead he used a market projection figure and a vague and legally indeterminate term "I expect that we will have a sizeable chunck of it."
all of these subtle hints published in an article released right after the recently announced conference call, lead me to believe the conf call is going to be a factual let down and reveal all the reasons that the original investors were happy to take $10.50/share back in january.
of course i could be wrong, and i have no proof, but i offer these points up ahead of time for the honest individual investors out there to be prepared for either way. i am prepared now for either scenario after the conf call. are you????
"smart money moves based on logical purpose, not an emotional need to be filled."
printable version of the article: