Sorry, it's not EZCH just yet. :-)
Here is the new presentation dated 05-07 in preparation for the upcoming roadshow (growth stock conferences, institutions, etc).
Note the info on the NP-4 at 80gig throughput (40gig full duplex).
you posted: "The big key here is whether you want to believe that EZ management does. Your debate should be with LNOP management, not Gilder. They are the ones who specifically stated that when the revenue starts coming in from their two tier 1 customers that it will dwarf all other customers combined. Frankly, I do not see any other way to interpret this other than they believe CSCO and JNPR are making firm commitments to using EZ NPU's and will be ramping these products in the 2nd half of this year and in 2008."
i recall hearing ceo eli fruchter say on the conf call that he does *not* expect np-3 sales to produce meaningful revenues on ezchip's books until the 2nd half of 2008 for juniper and 2009 for cisco.
(i will search for a transcript of the conf call)
he even used specific terms like "not anytime soon" or something to that effect. i know because i was searching for the bad and unexpected, while most are listening for confirmation of their already owned shares.
(i believe in preparing for the worst, while hoping for the best)
ceo eli also stated in a recent globes article that the company name change and stock symbol change wouldn't happen until after the final exchange of shares (goldman & jb+k), which "could happen *as early* as next year" (2008!).
taking all of that into account, i think the stock price will trade with enormous volatility between 9 and 20 (unless some of those predictions by the ceo change). all imho.
OT - a little here.
Do you think MRVL should be considered as an investment, based on their involvement with EZChip? Or will the revenue delta be too small to make a big difference?
I have been following their stock chart, & so far, there is no indication their involvement in EZChip will have a big impact. Their chart looks pretty bad.
Again, we are coming from different angles here. This is after all a "stock message board", so by default my assumption is that people are here because their primary interest is the stock price. I do not claim to know the detailed technical side of NPU's, switches, routers, other than a very basic understanding. The big key here is whether you want to believe that EZ management does. Your debate should be with LNOP management, not Gilder. They are the ones who specifically stated that when the revenue starts coming in from their two tier 1 customers that it will dwarf all other customers combined. Frankly, I do not see any other way to interpret this other than they believe CSCO and JNPR are making firm commitments to using EZ NPU's and will be ramping these products in the 2nd half of this year and in 2008. The words of management should get the most weight here, not Gilder, or Schmitt or me or you or whoever. They are the ones running the business, and I can only assume by what they have accomplished so far, and what they are saying, they know what they are doing, and might be able to provide the detailed technical discussion you are looking for. You should e-mail CCGK, their IR firm. It's listed on their website. They are open to a one on one conference call with you. I know this because it was offered to me, but I declined because any question I would ask would be financial, and I know they have answered those questions already as best they can. Past that, for obvious litigation reasons, they don't want to commit to any further specific numbers. I respect that.
Clearly they have a vision and knowledge which we do not, and they are trying to tell us without specifically stating the numbers. So, the big question is: do you believe them? That is each man/womans choice.
It seems your words contain a certain amount of hostility. I am OK with you calling me ignorant, as we are all ignorant of many things. So, do you want to help me become less ignorant. You have made some interesting points, but you have also spoken in a veiled language that most people here, including myself, don't fully understand. Can you be more illuminating for the masses? Do you want to? If the answer is no, then I guess we probably have reached the end of this conversation. Just remember, the stock doesn't know you own it. The market is made of many different perspectives, and all of those perspectives combined determine the level of a stock price. In the end, our opinions and actions are very tiny pieces of a very large puzzle. If LNOP/EZ excites some larger players on their upcoming roadshow with their story, then our opinion will matter even less in the short term, at least from the perspective of the stock price. I agree, the technical issues will still be the reality that drives the longer term situation, but I have seen individual stocks and the market as a whole misgauge perceived reality for long stretches of time, (1999 internet mania anyone?). After all, stock prices reflect expectations, which requires certain assumptions, which can vary wildly from individual to individual. Reality is history, not the future.
Keep Wall Street stuff on the Gilder board. I am from mai n street. And on my street facts rule not any vision. There is nothing to see. You look at revenues, but you do not understand the technology, nor do you understand anything
aboutk a router etc. No one is saying that Ez will not be sucessful. I have substantial $ invested in Ez or else I would not be here. However, there is a deep disdain for folks who take informatio that is confidential to the Gilder board and make statements here. Please do refrain from it, please. Do you own DD if you can. If not shut up. There is no business as the street cleaning business which I am.. Meanwhile, go send your best from the Gilder board, and lets debate. Lets talk routers, lets talk npus, lets draw figures... Gilder is a very high level guy... He does not know the nuts and bolts.... So peace brother, I am in Ez but that does not mean I am blindsided.... IP
Fair enough. I think we are just coming from different angles, I understand what you are saying, but 8 years of red ink tells me that EZ isn't some new kid on the block that just walked in and got some headway into a CSCO test box. My expertise lies in understanding how the big Wall Street machine works. Ultimately, stock prices respond to revenues and earnings. We'll see. Clearly the people who run LNOP/EZ are confident now, whereas in the past they really had nothing to talk about other than a "big idea".
Then you do know the difference between a wavelength and an IP packet. I presume you are one of the buzz words guys. Show me some deployment of 40 Gig?. Only MCI has one turned on.. I do not think you are a tech person, by the way yoyu throw stuff around. O.K if so, lets state the size an IPV4 header, and lets compare it with the size of an IPV6 header?. How many hIeaders in an IPV6 packet?. How many in an IPV4 packet?. Do you want to "google" and then come up with answers?. Or run to your beloved Gilder forum, where you should not be welcomed for spraying stuff over here...
Adios IP.. No time mucho gracis... Me make money, me no play with derif..
I normally do not respond but was intrigued with the NP4 slides.. That is 80 gig. If people do not realize it this is a direct capable interface into an optical switch, and gives you adequate salability.
Verizon FiOs, Web 2.0, IPTV. Yeah, I realize it. 1999 was 8 years early.
Breath. Mainly key edge deployments. By the way IPV6 lookups are an add on. So look into IDT and NETL mainly NETL for lookups. Check your mail. I am offline and lets sync up on the good old times.... This time you buy...
Simple, I own LNOP. My thoughts depends upon the number of pins :).. To get to the jist of it I entirely jive with your long post. The only clause I have is some benchmarks. What are the benchmarks of success?. Viral I may say is a something if it does not happen is bad. But as we speak, since both of us are engineers the transformation, and the investment in software and testing, you are inclined to move the same base over to another system.. Right!!!... If Ez is not viral then we are still stuck with two bit players. So what are the benchmarks... Sorry a software guy as you know... Immi