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EZchip Semiconductor Ltd. Message Board

  • takealook2 takealook2 May 5, 2008 9:29 AM Flag

    Another disappointing quarter

    What am I missing here? Why is there always so much chatter and then they come out with this? Please help me to understand, honest truthful answers not spin, how this quarter is good. I am open minded but skeptical. Thank you.

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    • boardwalk,

      -----------------------------------------------
      Total revenues in the second quarter of 2008 were $8.0 million
      (14.3% increase between)
      Total revenues in the first quarter of 2008 were $7.0 million
      (22.8% increase between)
      Total revenues in the fourth quarter of 2007 were $5.7 million
      (9.6% increase between)
      Total revenues in the third quarter of 2007 were $5.2 million

      53% growth is accelerating.
      ------------------------------------------------

      53% growth (overall, from Q3-07 to Q2-08) does not make it "accelerating" sequential growth (Q-to-Q).

      Unfortunately, our revenue growth rate is DEcelerating as of this most recent report.
      (FACT: 14.3% is LESS than 22.8%)

      Just because you WANT to call it accelerating revenue growth, doesn't make it either accurate or objective.

      Simple example:
      If you were driving down the highway at 55mph and slammed on the brakes down to 15mph, you wouldn't desribe that change as accelerating.

      MBM

    • boardwalk,
      ------------------------------------------------
      Total revenues in the second quarter of 2008 were $8.0 million
      (14.3% increase between)
      Total revenues in the first quarter of 2008 were $7.0 million
      (22.8% increase between)
      Total revenues in the fourth quarter of 2007 were $5.7 million
      (9.6% increase between)
      Total revenues in the third quarter of 2007 were $5.2 million

      53% growth is accelerating.
      ------------------------------------------------

      53% overall growth does not make it "accelerating", just because you (or your bosses) want it to be. It is just "growth". Period.

      Unfortunately, our revenue growth rate is DEcelerating as of this most recent report.
      (FACT: 14.3% is LESS than 22.8%)

      It appears you simply don't understand the difference between the terms "growth" and "acceleration", especially when applied to our revenues.

      GROWTH is defined simply as:
      "an increase in any particular measurement"

      ACCELERATION is defined as:
      "an increase in a measured rate of change"

      While our revenues ARE "growing", they are NOT "accelerating" their rate of growth. They are decelerating.

      Maybe you should try calling the company. They will explain it to you. Our most recent quarter experienced a DECELERATION in revenue growth.

      Trying to skew the facts again (as you often do UNobjectively) only shows that you are biased and only here to push your agenda, not help others with facts and unique insights.

      EZCH's smart investor base won't be fooled by your silver-tongued-devil ways anymore on this board. They taught you well at poster school, but not good enough.

    • boardwalk,

      You continually (over many years now) have missed the point. More waiting for the big change in our production unit volume and revenue numbers.

      While we are closer and closer and closer, we are STILL not there yet. You miss this every time (on purpose?).

      You only focus on the positives for the very very long term. (is that your job?)

      Lucky for you, that very very long wait is now down to just a few months or quarters. Like a broken clock during the daytime, you will eventually be right.

      Meanwhile.... my thoughts, opinions, predictions, and investment strategy have far exceeded the results of yours. Yet you haven't learned from this still.

      I am long and love our long term story like you do, but I (like most longs) want the hopes and waiting to finally end after many many years.

      The fact that you are all golly-gee-happy about our results each & every quarter (for many many quarters), proves you are not results oriented in your investmenting (if you even have any, since I believe you are paid to post here).

      You can focus on what you need to (for your bosses?). I (and other honest/objective longs) will continue to focus on our factual progress, and our actual stock price trading.

      MBM

      P.S. - EZchip was not around 10 years ago, but I understand why you didn't use the correct 8yr chart (it weakens your argument with a simple picture):
      http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/ChartingBasics.aspx?intraday=off&timeframe=8y&charttype=ohlc&splits=off&earnings=off&movingaverage=None&lowerstudy=volume&comparison=off&index=&drilldown=off&symbol=RMTR&symbol=CLRT&symbol=EZCH&selected=EZCH

    • Progress is evident and momentum is building. All you have to do as an investor is wait.

      Growing revenues, expanding margins more design wins, Non_GAAP profits all in a declining economy.

      Once Marvel (ya the waits long agree) ships its all pure gravy to the bottom line.

      Earnings powerhouse just look out past they field. (Not talking dream weaver either here)

      Prospects are bright for company.

      What's not to like

      • 1 Reply to boardwalk97
      • >>>>momentum is building. All you have to do as an investor is wait.<<<<

        Actually, that's my point about being disappointed with this qtr's results. More waiting. Almost a decade of that mentality now.

        Sure we are moving in the right direction, and therefore ever "closer" - but the FACTS show that momentum isn't building or increasing at a faster rate.

        Our RATE of growth is stuck at 74% avg over the past 3 quarters. Not bad growth from a tiny base, but not the 150-200% previously.

        I think I can safely speak for the vast majority of oldtime longs who are still hanging on here, that we are still disappointed and waiting yet again for "next qtr" now.............

        >>>>What's not to like?<<<<

        See above. It would be nice if our long wait was finally over. I believe it will be very soon, but it would have been nice if it was this past Monday.

        All IMHO.

        MBM

        P.S. - The upside to all this continued "very soon" mentality, is that we believers can still acquire more shares for the long term cheaply - especially if the overall market retests the recent lows again.

    • Why the name calling partner? Nobody called you message board mom did they?

      You were voted off this board long time ago my friend. Few if anybody welcomes your presence or appreciates your bs.

      You bring negative vibes to the board and dishonesty is your only art. Your some great core trader huh, well why must you advertise.

      Go back and see the posts over the past days. Everyone questions your rationale which breeds a deceptive motivation.

      The quarter was disappointing and the revenues decelerated in your opinion, yet nobody saw things as exactly as you did.

      I'll take another vote and as in the past folks will vote with their minds an oust you from this board.

      Your that Grumman guy everyone knows (or did he die under one of your aliases)

      In my ten years on this board I've come to know your lies over the past three years. I can tell from my gifts of knowing your not a good person.

      Time for the ignore button and thanks for answering the questions. transparency.

    • Jeffries may not be involved at all, if the VCs already decided (or decide still) to sell their shares NOT in an offering per se.

      Since the "sixty days" have already passed now, I believe this part of the filing is what is most applicable and important now.....

      "FOLLOWING THE DATE THAT IS SIXTY DAYS AFTER the effectiveness of the registration statement, each Selling Shareholder may, in addition to selling all or a portion of the ordinary shares beneficially owned by them as described above, sell or otherwise dispose of, (i) one-third of the ordinary shares registered in this registration statement, (ii) an additional one-third of such ordinary shares at any time following April 21, 2008, and (iii) the remaining one-third of such ordinary shares at any time following July 20, 2008. Such sales or other dispositions may be open market transactions, privately negotiated transactions, ordinary brokerage transactions, transactions in which the broker-dealer solicits purchasers, a combination of such methods or any other method permitted by applicable law, including pursuant to Rule 144. In addition, the Selling Shareholders shall be entitled to sell their ordinary shares without volume or time restriction in connection with a third party’s acquisition or proposed acquisition of us, or a tender offer for, merger or change of control of, us."
      http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/edgar_conv_html/2008/02/05/0001178913-08-000315.html#ZK84801_HTM_ZK108


      Regarding the raising of our share price, in order to attract more volume (dumb money chases performance), being "not logical" - all I can tell you is look at the past year and a half.

      When they employed each other to book profits and earn banking fees, the stock moved up for seemingly no reason. Then after the stock moved up, news followed to justify that move.

      Once the VC selling, and the secondary offering was completed, and the NPA news came out - funny how we went almost straight down from there. (not funny really)

      When WS works together to team up against us little guys on these small caps (instead of against each other like on the bigger stocks), they know how to work our greed/fear to move price in order to achieve their goals.

      Good luck to you John. I think the rest of 2008 is going to be very interesing, and finally very profitable for most oldtimer longs here. We're ever so close now......

      MBM

    • Jefferies was selected early on to handle this sale... when it happens. You should know that they will do a lot better job than the previous Yahoos. MBM it would be nice to be able to run the stock price up and sell 5 million shares at the same time... does not sound real logical.

      Regards, John

    • p2k,

      Frankly, we don't know for sure if they have sold any shares at all yet - and we probably won't in time for it to be useful to us little guys. SEC filing rules are pretty outdated for our online abilities now IMHO.

      Our 2 remaining VCs have had the ability to sell 2/3 of their shares "in the open market" since April 21st, and the remaining 1/3 not until after July 20th (via the open market).

      The details of how and when they were allowed to sell are outlined in a previous post here:
      http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Business_%26_Finance/Investments/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_L/threadview?bn=27937&tid=22723&mid=22748

      If they are very smart and have the time to wait for the perfect timing (without resorting to manipulation), they will wait until huge volume buying comes into the stock IMHO.
      (likely when Cisco is known as official, in some form on our books or via signed sales contracts announced)

      But if they (GS and JK&B) want or need their money faster, what happens to our price is up in the air completely - depending on how they do it (as you outlined) and how fast they decide to complete it.

      We won't know these types of details with certainty until well after they are finished, via a SEC filing like Nokia Venture Partners filed earlier this year:
      http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/quotes_sec.asp?mode=&kind=&timeframe=&intraday=&charttype=&splits=&earnings=&movingaverage=&lowerstudy=&comparison=&index=&symbol=ezch&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&FormType=&mkttype=&pathname=&page=filings&selected=EZCH

      Good luck with your shares. The longer term your horizon, the less of an issue this will be for you. And if you are interested in buying any more shares cheaply, then I say "be prepared to pounce"......

      MBM

    • if thats the case, how much do you think that they have already sold? w/ a 5M stake dont they have to file some kind of form 4 or something? of course their shares are freely trading, but it seems that they have played a patient low volume higher priced selling, rather than doing a big private sale at a significant discount to market.

      Its debatable whether its better to distribute shares to the market vs swapping major holders. the one thing about the open market is it gives longs a chance to sell to large fund accumulators which could drive the price further up?

      regarding the games, i do beleive that they are taking place here and at many boards, there are so many exit points for a stock, for so many reasons, panic is the primary control system for retail investors, but for larger institutional investors, there are protocols worked out, people do their calculatons and traders get a tap on the shoulder...

      one thing is for sure, gilder's people still have a long way to go before this stock goes to anywhere near what they have been purporting for quite some time

      p2k

    • VERY GOOD ANALYSIS OF THE CALL INDEED:
      Adam Benjamin did a super job of taking out the fillers. I listened attentively early in on the call to the language and tone regarding that so called large vendor. First take was ELI said when they reach volume production we'll announce? I took that to mean they may be using product but not at a meaninful level? Any comments appreciated?

      The second go was that we will ship two ways to this customer direct and thru our partner Marvel? In this scenario sounded like nothing has shipped?
      ANy takers thanks on deciphering the call?

      All in all the outlook is good and like it was stated earlier Juniper hasn't even emptied the revolver plenty of rounds of business.

      We'll reach profits sooner than I had expected. Once Marvel ships this top spins to a new high!!

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