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EZchip Semiconductor Ltd. Message Board

  • daytraderrdude daytraderrdude Feb 14, 2012 3:09 PM Flag

    I am so tempted to sell after this run!

    i think i need to turn the computer off and walk away before i do something i will regret.

    i need a pep talk!

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    • ***Why are posters so responsive to this thread.***

      If you keep up with the history of posts, red sox has been in and out of EZ consistently. He started investing in EZ due to buyout rumors.

      As to dude, his name says it all. And he failed to respond to long-ezch's post, which also said it all.

      At best they are momo players, at worst the girls are back.

    • Re: "I need a pep talk"

      A picture is worth a 1,000 words.

      Look at the charts on pg 13-14 on EZCH' latest presentation and ***DOUBLE*** the values / Plots.

      Hint- 2014 /14 $9 EPS/share potential from a buck and change today. $37 X 9 = $333.

      Macro / geo-political risks aside, and they are worth considering, we've got a "once-in-a lifetime" (a rare ) opportunity here in EZCH.

      >>>>>>>>> old post here >>>>>>>

      During the CC’s Q&A (unfortunately not included in cc Script) I thought I heard Eli add to the questioner’s comment re: NP-4 quadrupling the revenue over NP-2/3….. that NP-5 revenue would **double** that of NP-4.

      Was that a new revelation from Eli, or had he spoken to that before.

      Per my notes, Eli also stated NP-5 would start to sample before the end of 2012 with some revenue in 2013, and **significant** revenue in 2014.

      In a prior post I pegged 2015 EPS at $4.33…**without** NP-5.

      With NP-5’s significant revenue beginning in 2014, could Eli be hinting that potential is closer to $9 EPS (2014 /15) ???

      New EZCH presentation with the new slide on page 13- “EZCH Growth Potential”

      http://ezchip.com/Images/pdf/EZCH-investorsQ311-111205.pdf

      Connecting the dots yields a potential 2015 EPS of $4.33, excluding NP-5 and the mysterious product(s) from the new plant.


      >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>


      Expected Growth in Edge Routing- Chart #12

      ……………………………………2010 Actual………………………2015 Forecast
      ……………………………………# Ports…# NP-2/3 Chips………..# Ports…# NP-4 Chips
      ..+ 1GE Ports & Chips…………..1.5M……150K (10ports/NP-2)…2.1M…..50K (40ports/NP-4)
      ..+ 10GE Ports & Chips…………450K……450K (1port/NP-3)……5.8M…..1.45M (4ports/NP-4)
      ..+ 100GE Ports & Chips……………………………………………...350K…..700K (2 NP-4/Port)

      EZchip Growth Potential- Chart #13 (new)………………………………………………………Growth
      …………………………………………………………………………………………………………..Potential
      ..+ # of NPUs in Edge Routers….600K (NP-2/3)…………………………….2,200K (NP-4)……..3.7X
      ..+ EZCHs impt platform wins……….4……………………………………………..10………………1.5X
      ..+ EZCHs ASP (NP 2/3 v NP-4)……1………………………………………………1.5………….....1.5X
      ..+Total growth potential…………………………………………………………………………………8X
      ..+ Practical growth potential (50%)……………………………………………………………………4X

      Jim chart extension
      ………………………………….2010 Actual………………………….2015 Forecast
      ..+ EZCH Revenue……………$62M…………………………………$248M………………………..4X
      ..+ Net Margin……..............................49%%...................................................50%
      ..+ Net Income………………...$30.4…………………………………$124M
      ..+ Shares out …………………..26.4M…………………………………28.6M (9/30/2011)??
      ..+ EPS…………………………$ 1.15………………………….……$ 4.33

    • Sell covered call options. You could generate income while not losing the stock. Then do it again next month.

 
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