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EZchip Semiconductor Ltd. Message Board

  • KINIMOD7 KINIMOD7 Sep 14, 2000 10:19 PM Flag

    Buy, Sell, or Hold.

    Daily Opinion: HOLD
    Thursday's Bullish (up)
    bar with above average volume (112% of average)
    suggests a possible move higher on the next day.


    Short-Term Opinion: HOLD
    On a short-term technical basis,
    the trend is Bullish (up) and the stock is above its
    50-day moving average at 16.02 which also confirms its
    Bullish (up) trend. The stock is slightly overbought
    according to the Stochastic indicator (68.88).

    Long
    Term Opinion: HOLD
    On a long-term technical basis,
    the stock (LNOP) is trading above its 200-day moving
    average, but has broken through an important support
    level, which implies it is in a neutral
    trend.

    The stock has support at 19.75 and 17.81. If the
    stock breaks down through support at 19.75 then it will
    probably continue lower to 17.81. The stock has resistance
    at 41.28 and 43.75. If the stock breaks up through
    resistance at 41.28 then it will probably continue higher to
    43.75. The 200-day moving average is at 13.92. This will
    also act as support. The stock's long-term uptrend has
    changed into a sideways or downtrend. In this case, the
    stock will either go sideways for a while or sell-off
    back to where it started prior to the latest big
    upmove. This is a risky time for the stock, so be
    careful. Use caution during times like these, as the stock
    will be more volatile. Pay close attention to the
    Short-Term and Daily Opinion. The stock is slightly
    overbought according to the Stochastic Indicator (73.69).

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • when this dog tanks.
      enjoy the w/end

    • Yeah 34? Just a number I pulled out of my head.
      If there is some good initial volume monday morning
      who knows how high this will go. Most will just want
      to get out because of it's inability to act like
      most other stocks after such high volume days. The
      breakouts on such low volume are sharp and quick. I think
      we will see high 30's next week. But if we don't, I
      won't be heartbroken, I can wait, the day traders
      cannot. Although I do daytrade I keep long positions as
      well. haz

    • http://www.buysellorhold.com/members/

      notice the buy, sell, hold site has moved the resistance
      down to 32.88 from 42 (and corectly so).....they might
      not get a chance to buy back at 34...if it breaks 32
      look out!

      Daily Opinion: HOLD
      Friday's very
      Bullish (up) bar with above average volume (116% of
      average) suggests a possible move higher on the next day.


      Short-Term Opinion: OUTPERFORM
      On a short-term technical
      basis, the trend is Bullish (up) and the stock is above
      its 50-day moving average at 16.36 which also
      confirms its Bullish (up) trend. The stock is slightly
      overbought according to the Stochastic indicator (69.96).


      Long Term Opinion: HOLD
      On a long-term technical
      basis, the stock (LNOP) is trading above its 200-day
      moving average, but has broken through an important
      support level, which implies it is in a neutral
      trend.

      The stock has support at 19.75 and 17.81. If the
      stock breaks down through support at 19.75 then it will
      probably continue lower to 17.81. The stock has resistance
      at 32.88 and 41.44. If the stock breaks up through
      resistance at 32.88 then it will probably continue higher to
      41.44. The 200-day moving average is at 14.04. This will
      also act as support. The stock's long-term uptrend has
      changed into a sideways or downtrend. In this case, the
      stock will either go sideways for a while or sell-off
      back to where it started prior to the latest big
      upmove. This is a risky time for the stock, so be
      careful. Use caution during times like these, as the stock
      will be more volatile. Pay close attention to the
      Short-Term and Daily Opinion. The stock is slightly
      overbought according to the Stochastic Indicator (74.

    • Navellier's stand. He has been extraordinarily
      bullish, predicting a post-Labor Day rally (oops) and big
      gains through November.

      Here is his commentary
      from Thursday night (see www.mptreview.com for
      subscription):

      Market Commentary

      "I am doing the hotline early
      (Thursday night) because my wife and I are expecting a baby
      sometime on Friday. On the surface the market is looking
      pretty sloppy, but under the surface the market is doing
      very well. In fact, on Thursday before the Nasdaq sold
      off late in the day, our stocks were just screaming.
      On average, our stocks were up over 3% on Thursday
      before the sell off. Even when the Nasdaq sold off, we
      finished the day quite nicely. What is happening, is that
      some leading stocks such as Oracle and Adobe, are
      releasing very good earnings. We are now entering earnings
      pre-announcement season. Now, that we have good leadership in the
      market, the analysts are starting to revise their
      earnings estimates higher for our stocks. Our stocks are
      heating up fast. Our growth portfolios are phenomenal. It
      does not matter whether they are large cap, mid cap,
      or small cap. They are all starting to take off
      right now because analysts� sentiment is so positive.
      This will continue into early October. We will then
      count on third quarter earnings announcements to drive
      our stocks higher. There has been a lot of anxiety on
      Wall Street because some flagship stocks (like
      McDonalds) have had their earnings estimates cut. But these
      are former flagships. The few stocks leading the
      market higher like Adobe and Sun Microsystems are doing
      fine. I feel very good right now, the market is
      becoming increasingly narrow. This is actually what we
      want. The market has focused on the stocks that have
      the best earnings; those are our stocks in the model
      portfolios. It is a narrow market and 90% of the money will
      be chasing less than 10% of the stocks. Wall Street
      is desperately seeking those stocks that will be
      able to sustain phenomenal earnings growth, even if
      the economy slows. I am very pleased to see how
      strong our stocks are, even when the market is not
      strong. Be diversified because not every stock will be
      doing perfectly. However, I am quite pleased with how
      strong our stocks are under the surface."

    • Oh come on, as if your not short. This last week
      this board has been really dull, then the stock trades
      higher over the last 2 days, and you guys come out in
      droves dissing the stock. Why the hell would you give
      such a speech if you weren't short? You guys are
      scrambling right now. Don't worry though if naz does well
      next week you will all be buying back at 34. Good luck
      in convincing people you are looking out for their
      wellfare. haz

    • I didn't mean to say the 5 million raised for EZ
      Chip wasn't used for the development of EZ Chip. I
      meant to say, the company got enough money to fund EZ
      Chip and Netguard by raising the additional capital
      for EZ Chip and freeing its funds for the Netguard
      development. With that view, it seems to me the company was
      demonstrating a belief in both divisions. On the other hand,
      one could also say they were dividing their bet on
      two speculative projects. I do expect the stock to be
      volatile. Even if its a big winner long term, anyone who
      invests solely because Gilder lists it, or the longs on
      this board, or Mr Frucher like it will be sorely
      tested on downdrafts. With low float speculative stocks
      non traders have to get a feel for the promise of the
      company so they know when to hold 'em and know when to
      fold 'em. ar

    • I responded to someone 3x your age from my native
      Boston, but you must hav had a similar post. My comments
      may not have fit your's exactly. You have reason not
      to step into this stock, and they are reasonable. I
      recently told someonewho asked whether he sould still get
      in (I'd told him it was inteesting a year ago) that
      it was still very speculative. Both Netguard and EZ
      Chip have moved significantly ahead in the last year,
      but so has the price. I agree that the run up to 43
      was aided by the tech run up, but not all stocks
      moved that much. I believe the promise of EZ Chip, LNOP
      sold a piece of EZ and took in about 5 million from
      venture capital firms to devlop the chip, so they would
      have assets to develop Netguard. They are in two
      different businesses, which they wanted to move ahead. It
      would seem logical that a spinoff or split or sale
      might happen some time in the future. It seems to me
      that the people running and investing in this company
      and both divisions are quality, knowledgeable people.
      I've invested in them as well as my limited
      understanding of their products. If I were them, and confident
      in my vision, I'd not sell or spin EZ chip or
      Netguarduntil I had market acceptance, and my goal would be two
      independent companies. ar

    • Well, for the first time today someone at least
      posted a reason they own LNOP....Netguard software. OK,
      but what about Netguard prompts the stock to double
      in two weeks? My "no real reason" comment related to
      the jump from mid-teens to about $31. A virtual
      double in value for "no real reason" (for the rise)
      other than Gilder. I didn't say there was "no value" to
      LNOP outside of EZChip - my point is: what about this
      company would prompt one to buy after this run - at these
      levels? Additionally, the "Gilder Effect" has developed a
      definite pattern on his latest picks, which I believe I
      have identified and tried to illustrate here. Hey, I
      may be wrong.

      As for your comment about the
      $43 high last spring.....well, look at the highs for
      almost any stock. Most ran like crazy until the spring,
      at which time they crashed like crazy. Many would
      argue (myself included)that last spring, most techs
      were way overvalued - they had run too far, too fast.
      The examples are too numerous to mention. Be careful
      in determining a stock's potential based on the
      highs we saw in the spring. It may be quite awhile
      before we see the highs that were reached on most stocks
      at that time. Then again, we may see them
      significantly rebound in the fourth quarter - However, the oil
      situation (among other reasons) may preclude the market in
      general from going back to where it was in the spring.


      EZ Chip "may" turn out to be real. Gilder's opinion
      on technology is one that I certainly respect. He's
      quite prescient on these matters.......but, he's not
      right every time, so one can't base one's decision
      strictly on what GG says (you obviously haven't). It
      certainly might be worth a small bet that this pans out, as
      long as you really do have a long term horizon, and
      really believe in the company.

      Incidentally, 90%
      of my holdings are tech stocks - many of which have
      very high P.E.'s. I'm holding them for the long term,
      unless they meet particular objectives that I have set
      for each one. I'm not shorting anything, just
      considering this one as a good candidate if it gets to that
      high (or near it) it reached on the day Gilder picked
      it. I don't think it will for quite
      awhile.

      Good luck.

    • The no real reason position is interesting. I
      disagree with your suggestion that there is no value to
      LNOP outside of EZ Chip. I see a significant expansion
      in personnel, sales and endrsements since Netguard
      began releasing their new software about 7 months ago.
      Perhaps that is not Real to you. And I suppose EZ Chip is
      not Real since they only have slideware, and rumored
      but unproven and unexecuted customer and manufacturer
      interest. OK. Now I have and had many stocks selling at 100
      to 400+ PEs. Many of these companies must continue
      to come up with new products at an ever increasing
      rate to continue to grow sales and profits at a rate
      that warrant their PEs. Their customers must in turn
      grow their sales and profits fast enough to reqire
      such orders, and so on. To non tech investors there is
      no Real Reason to buy many of the hot tech stocks.
      The $43 $ high last spring was not related to any
      Gilder comments, and was long after Comverse and Soros,
      (and I think, the parents of Comverse Chairman as of
      their annual report for 1998 or 9). Investors then,
      including myself of limited financial and tech expertise,
      read their white paper and were impressed that this
      could be a significant company. Perhaps I'm wrong, but
      I believe the possibilty is Real, and apparently so
      does Gilder. Of course possibilty is not as real as
      orders and physical chips. To me 6 months or a year is
      not so unreal either.

    • I don't take offense to anything posted on these
      boards, but I do appreciate your civil tone.

      If
      you bought at 18 or 20, you obviously have nothing to
      worry about. You are ahead of the game. However, anyone
      looking to buy this thing now - after it has basically
      doubled in a couple of weeks for no "REAL" reason - is
      asking for trouble IMHO.

      Your use of TA in this
      case (based on a buy at 18 or 20) did not take into
      account the spike that occurred (one-time event) when
      Gilder added it to the list. My point is, if you're
      buying now be aware of this event. It has to alter the
      "technical" aspect of the analysis.

      I don't think we
      are converging on our opinions, but I don't think
      that matters anyway. Obviously, we both think we are
      right based on our own reasoning.

      Good luck.

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EZCH
21.50+0.17(+0.80%)Oct 21 4:00 PMEDT

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