Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Plug Power Inc. Message Board

  • bg_rox2001 bg_rox2001 Mar 31, 2010 2:10 PM Flag

    Financial breakdown

    Can anyone that has run some financial analysis on these guys please share some insight? I am most interested in a couple things.

    What would the impact of an India award be on revenue, profit margins, operating expenses, and stock share price?

    How many units does PLUG need to sell to reach their projected 40M for 2010?

    What will need to occur for PLUG to reach profitability by 2012?

    Assuming PLUG hits 40M revenue as they expect, what will the share price realistically be in 12 months.

    Has anyone broken down these questions? I have to various degree but I am curious what others think. I would like to hear from optimistic, pessimistic, and realistic people of all sorts as long as it is somewhat intelligent.

    This stock is either going to pay my mortgage off by 2012, or be the 25K I wish I would have gone to Amsterdam with.

    Cheers,
    Shawn

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • pressure is building, will we have a multi million share close

    • I estimate to reach profits, PLUG will need about 100M in revenue. I may be way off, I am trying to find out.

      If they can reach 18% profit margin by then, and hit 18M in profit, this comes out to about .14/share.

      Based on a PE of 12 (which is exceptionally low for a company growing revenue by >25%), the share price would be in the ballpark of $1.68 and this is very conservative math.

      If in fact PLUG can reach 100M in revenue in 2012, and pull in 18M in profit, the share price is likely to reflect future earnings growth and trade on a forward looking basis of say 2013/2014 projections. Based on that growth:

      2013 revenue would be around 130M with profits (20%) 26M
      = .20/share profit or about $2.40 share price

      2014 recenue would be around 175M with profits (20%) 35M
      = .27/share profit $3.30 share price


      These numbers are very doable, and a P/E of 12 is very reasonable. PLUG must land the contracts to make this happen.


      Of course there are skeptics - this is merely a possibility.

    • I estimate to reach profits, PLUG will need about 100M in revenue. I may be way off, I am trying to find out.

      If they can reach 18% profit margin by then, and hit 18M in profit, this comes out to about .14/share.

      Based on a PE of 12 (which is exceptionally low for a company growing revenue by >25%), the share price would be in the ballpark of $1.68 and this is very conservative math.

      If in fact PLUG can reach 100M in revenue in 2012, and pull in 18M in profit, the share price is likely to reflect future earnings growth and trade on a forward looking basis of say 2013/2014 projections. Based on that growth:

      2013 revenue would be around 130M with profits (20%) 26M
      = .20/share profit or about $2.40 share price

      2014 recenue would be around 175M with profits (20%) 35M
      = .27/share profit $3.30 share price


      These numbers are very doable, and a P/E of 12 is very reasonable. PLUG must land the contracts to make this happen.


      Of course there are skeptics - this is merely a possibility.

    • I can tell you that after the presentation about the path to profitability i made a simple calculation keeping into acount the 2012 expected earnings and the average SP500 P/E. It came out a price around 1$.

    • go to Amsterdam with 12K and bet on plug with the other 12K
      who knows ... you may still get to pay-off your mortgage and go back to amster to pick-up were you left-off

      cheers

 
PLUG
2.40+0.01(+0.42%)Jul 30 4:00 PMEDT