May be ASL home base - Ghana - now looks prety good, when NEM got into trouble in Pacific Rim? Now investors reavaluating ASL based on reserves, production and cost/oz to the level of ABX and NEM. It should be $13-14, I belive, if NEM and ABX at the current level.
I do not believe you can value this stock on the level as ABX, NEM or other major NA producer. There is political risk in Africa which the market takes into account along with other risks. But the action today is unusual at best. I consider the rise suspicious in light of the tone of today's market - but the volume discounts this. Thus I am led to believe something else may be going on SA stocks often trade on insider information. I do not believe ASL is subject to a takeover by another major firm as it would be too difficult in light of the ownership of Lonro and the Government of Ghana. In addition it is a proudly black institution. But Lonro has been considered to be a target with its holding of ASL. And perhaps a Major intends to acquire Lonro's mining interests in a manner that would be bullish for ASL. Just a thought. I have observed the stock closely over a considerable period of time in view of my significant holdings. But I have not observed anything close to today's action in light of a downtrend in gold and the gold stocks in general. Perhaps it is just an anomoly. Perhaps an institution was purchasing and if through, the stock may be off sharply in the morning. That is the difficulty of attempting to day trade stocks or time market turns. Stocks frequently move very swiftly at times when one least expects them to and often in a counter direction to what one would think. And that is why IMO one should at the fundamentals of a company and general conditions of the market - and then look at the technicals.
I too have followed ASl closely and it important to remember that the stock is 'thin' most all of the time. The float is spread across four continents. If an institution or individual wants to buy say 100K shares the choices are bid it up hard or spend a week buying small lumps. Last week somebody bought 20K and 30K chunks, it cost him/her some money to do. Try selling some next time it goes down. It ain't pretty. Was this person smart is the question. The Gov't of Ghana and Lonhro own over 50% of the total stock so a takeover is unlikely I think, which is a pity since it is vastly underpriced, in Africa or not.