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Tekmira Pharmaceuticals Corporation Message Board

  • rnai_inv rnai_inv Aug 14, 2012 9:05 AM Flag

    no news today

    That's my guess. It's just waiting for either a settlement or getting closer to the trial. Until then TKMR is basically a waiting game. My estimate is that even a settlement, if any of course, is at least a month away. Not because both companies want to wait that long, but any kind of settlement will involve many details.

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    • I would like to add that when the risk of the lawsuit is gone you will finally see investors get back. The share price has been pretty depressed because of the lawsuit.
      Tekmira is getting close to real revenue and profit in the next few years with TTR02, the TLON drug. This little run up is nothing when TTR02 will get closer to the market.

      I expect this to go up a few when there is a settlement (probably in october) and much more in the next few years.

    • Bold statements, but no substance. Is a jury trial very expensive - of course it is, but since TKMR's counsel is on contingency, that doesn't apply here. "Dead, on clincial hold or defunded" - is PLK1 dead? Even though ALNY is pretending that their 2nd generation delivery technology is their proprietary invention, it is pretty clear from the lawsuit filings that it is a minor advance from the same 1st generation technology that TKMR has valid license agreements for. This will get settled - ALNY can't take the risk of potential clinical delays from this litigation, and with TKMR's market cap less than $100M and the drugs ALNY is developing potentially worth billions, the value equation here is sound.

    • "Running lean" isn't quite the same as Tekmira shedding 60-something percent of their work staff since the trial began. There's been no large partnership announced, no new products being pursued past the preclinical, and their only three products are either dead, on clinical hold or about to be defunded.

      There's no way to know for sure, but odds are TKMR and ALNY are fairly far apart on settlement terms, if there's been any. Going to a jury trial is terribly expensive also, and it seems like TKMR is going all in for the result. Remember that ALNY still has an active counter-suit. Without a large award, I'm not even sure we'll feel a noticeable bump in share price.

    • You won't hear anything until after Labor day, it's summer after all. My guess, I see Alny offering about 50 million to settle, plus better milestone payments and a promise not to be bad ever again. Whether TKMR accepts is another question. If they do, we'll see a good 50% increase in share price; the SP has already increased by 80% off the bottom (2-ish), so much of the settlement is already baked in. Now, another question is whether long-term holders will simply sell the news. Frankly, unless the settlement is much much better than this and has some longer term payout provisions, I think you'll see quite a sell off; not much organic SP appreciation for either company due exclusively to the science for a good long time. A lot of long-term holders will be happy to simply take the money and move on. Good luck. -s

 
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