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Antares Pharma Inc. Message Board

  • tman437 tman437 Apr 11, 2011 10:05 PM Flag

    LibiGel Value

    All –
    We are rapidly approaching a point in time (within the next year) that Antares & Biosante should receive monetary benefit from LibiGel. For the sake of initiating discussion & debate, here is my estimate of what the companies (Antares & Biosante) might receive if LibiGel is, successfully partnered and commercialized.

    Scenario:
    Biosante & Antares agree on a smaller upfront payment with royalties on product sales of 15% (There are multiple options as to what the final agreement might look like. I selected this scenario because I believe that it is the most conservative).

    Assumptions:

    Biosante & Antares agree to partner Worldwide with a single Pharma company and receives upfront payment totaling $800,000,000.

    Biosante receives $600,000,000
    Antares receives $250,000,000

    Biosante is obligated to pay 25% of their upfront to Antares, which equals $150,000,000
    Biosante’s total upfront payment now becomes $450,000,000

    Antares gets to keep their $250,000,000
    Antares’s total upfront payment now becomes $400,000,000 (250+150)

    In this model, I project annual sales of Biosante controlled regions to be $1.5 billion / year and annual sales of Antares controlled regions to be $750,000,000. (Hopefully these are conservative estimates)

    Based on an assumption that each company would receive a 15% royalty on product sales and the fact that Antares is entitled to 5% of Biosante royalties, I estimate that recurring sales based revenue for each company as follows.

    Biosante: $1.5 billion / year sales * 15% royalty - 5% paid to Antares= $213,000,000 / year income
    Antares: $750 Million / year sales * 15% royalty * 5% received from Biosante = $112,000,000 / year income

    All constructive comment is welcome.

    Best Regards,
    Ron

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    • They are used off label too.
      It also reduce the risk of non approval (IMO)

    • tman, ask yourself this question "If there was any possibility of AIS receiving $112M/yr for LibGel, wouldn't the pro's who follow these stocks be buying up AIS and driving the stock price much, much higher?" If it sounds to good to be true, it probably is. AIS trades in the $1.5 to $1.8 range. That is what the stock is worth, which reflects all the future earnings of AIS as viewed by the experts. I have nvested in many biotechs, and those that have message boards always have some posters who just love to daydream about how big the stock will be, and implying that no one else sees these possibilities as keenly as they do. Needless to say, their views rarely come to fruition. HOP

      • 1 Reply to hopping_on_bandwagon
      • Hopping -

        I have no idea what the ultimate PPS of Antares might be or even the ultimate value of a partnership. We are all guessing, dreaming, pretending to know what we are chatting about.

        Let me ask you this, if (and I say if) my projection of partnership & revenue dollars is correct, what is the formula as to when the PPS would reflect the value? One week before actual release of partnering info, one month, one year, five years? If you can answer this question accurately, I would surely be impressed.

        Best Regards,

        Ron

    • Tappy -

      We are all guessing. Who knows what mystery awaits us as to final outcome regarding the LibiGel saga. Will the characters be killed off by the FDA villans. Will Super Pharma save the day with a bucket load of cash. I just hope I live long enough to participate in the final voyage.

      Very Best,

      Ron

    • Ron.
      I think you over estimate Libigel potential.
      I think the max it will do world wide (if approved), is 150-200MM best case.
      Don't forget the target market is limited and we already getting off label use of other testosterone products.
      So if AIS can get 25-30MM income per year, we will do just fine.

    • silvrmoon@ymail.com silvrmoon Apr 11, 2011 11:37 PM Flag

      Thanks for all the analysis everyone. Much appreciated in light of recent (non)events.

      Regards,
      Silvrmoon

    • Ron,

      Very nice.

      Regarding "In this model, I project annual sales of Biosante controlled regions to be $1.5 billion / year and annual sales of Antares controlled regions to be $750,000,000. (Hopefully these are conservative estimates)"

      Quick question, Why do you place a higher annual sales to BPAX when AIS retains 'everything outside U.S'?

      At first blush, I think the upfront payment from the single pharma partner is low by perhaps as much 2x.

      jb

      • 1 Reply to jab91252
      • Jab -

        Fair questions.

        First, I did not want to model using sales projections that would be considered best case and outlandish. If the projections of Biosante are correct, and the potential market is 2+ billion and 95%+ off label sales are diverted to LibiGel, than yes, I would be very conservative.

        As for the lower projection for Antares sales revenue, if you read the terms of the agreement between Antares and Biosante carefully it seems to suggest that Antares ownes Europe, and some other regions and Biosante owns other territories including Japan, China, etc. If this is the case (perhaps I am mistaken) than the total market opportunity for Antares is not as large as one might think. Couple this with the fact that European countries sell their pharma product cheaper that North Anerica, it leads me to estimate less total sales value for Antares controlled areas.

        Now, I am also a realist, and understand that LibiGel might not ever receive approval, but given the information and development currently available, I am betting that LibiGel does reach the market within the next 2-2.5 years.

        Very Best,

        Ron

    • both you and tappy are delusional....so if i have you correct libi gel is going to be partnered for 850,000,000 and will have over 2 billion of sales.and when will this be happening??????

      $1.58 thats what the scorecard says.

      • 2 Replies to stuartscott89000
      • Sir Stuartscott -

        You might be correct LibiGel might never become approved. Or perhaps I am right, and LibiGel is marketed for some $ amount. At this point-in-time, only time will tell for sure.

        I cannot claim with exact certainty, product approval, and you cannot claim, with 100% certainty, product disapproval.

        No matter what, I will continue to RESPECT the opinions offered on this message board no matter if they agree or disagree with mine, as long as they are presented with RESPECT and Professionalism.

        Very Best,
        Ron

      • Stuartscott:

        Come on Man! Ron asked for some constructive debate on this subject and the first response from you is to classify his post as "delusional"??

        Well, couldn't you give it some more thought? Is he half right? $0.00 dollars right? Please, something more than a quick token 'delusional' reply with your ususal Tappy bash-thrown in.

        I thought previously of given you a pass, but with this post of yours, I can only surmise your just a very bitter man that basically hates the world and most everything in it.

        jb