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Antares Pharma Inc. Message Board

  • bsav88atty bsav88atty Apr 17, 2012 2:11 PM Flag

    Pfizer Buyout Speculation - Part Three

    I tried several times to post this to my prior thread...

    9. Speaking of Gelnique/Anturol, it's very interesting to me the company has signed up only one ROW partner for a drug that received FDA approval four months ago. Same for not yet signing a European partner for MTX, especially considering that a significantly inferior methotrexate-syringe product has enjoyed much success across the pond. Of course, we still don't have that NestraGel partnership. What is Wotton and his team doing in their month-to-month offices all day? Does PFE want all of these rights and more? Sure they do.

    10. Everyone has a price. As Tappy correctly noted, sure, Wotton and his leadership team are young and looking to make a mark with this company. But at some point, taking the cash overrules the desire to hit other objectives. The top ten insiders at Antares hold about 1,473,736 shares: Wotton has 482,620, Apple has 285,231, and Sadowski has 133,221. Considering Antares's successes to date and its significant revenue potential, I believe Antares's bottom number is slightly above $1B. At about $10 pps, at least 5 Antares employees would walk away with over $1M in either cash or PFE stock, which, by the way, currently yields about a 4% dividend. Further considering all of PFE's billions in cash and their need for the IP and more revenue-generating products, I believe PFE would now pay Antares's bottom number.

    So why buy now at such a higher-than-standard premium instead of waiting until PFE's leadership can demonstrate to its shareholders that the acquisition would be immediately accretive earnings? Why did you buy this stock? Do you think you know more about Antares than Pfizer? Pfizer knows what QS1-3 are, we do not. Would it not be a savvy business decision to pick up the company now for a little more than $1B instead of waiting to pay $2B or more in a couple years? Would you rather buy AIS now or wait until it hits $10? Many smart investors on this board have said AIS is the best low risk/high reward opportunity they have in their portfolios. And many here have loaded up to levels that exceed 50% or more of their common stock portfolios. Buying AIS now would be even less risky for PFE, as it would require only about 1.8% of its anticipated 2013 cash balance.

    To that end, I am sad that it is unlikely the AIS 2015 Crew and the longs who have not joined the crew will enjoy watching Antares grow to $1B in revenues by 2018. I truly and sincerely hope that I am wrong.

    Tappy and others - You're up for the rebuttal.


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