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NUO THERAPEUTICS, INC. Message Board

  • vermillion_cliffs vermillion_cliffs Feb 20, 2014 11:46 AM Flag

    Lazy

    It may just be that management figures they can go another 5 weeks with a single word to shareholders. Uncertainty has driven the stock price down over 25 percent from recent highs, and its falling. Short interest has been thru the roof and volume has been high in a sell off. But no concern to management. Not their money on the line.

    Wouldn't it be great to have a job where you collect a steady check and no one ever knows what you do to earn it. You don't have to report to anyone. And when you do, the results are always a disappointment, but your job is never in jeopardy.

    Endless promise with no delivery. Just too easy for this lazy management.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Bump.

    • Bump.

    • Bump.

    • Cytomedix just may take over the market...GLTA!
      Under CMS' proposal for packaging in 2014, products like Dermagraft, Apligraf, and new products like Grafix, will become significantly disadvantaged, as all these products cost $1,500 or more. Under the current reimbursement system, hospitals are reimbursed $250 to $500 for the cost of the medical procedure, and are separately reimbursed for the cost of the graft for a total reimbursement of $2,000 to $2,225. The proposed bundled payment of $874 falls far short of the cost of the graft alone. We believe it will be difficult for these manufacturers to reduce their prices sufficiently to be attractive to caregivers in a bundled care environment. Two dermatology KOLs we've spoken with believe that the cost of manufacturing these grafts is in excess of $1,000. As we see it, that's going to create a very challenging sales environment for these two market leading products or new products like Grafix, and a major shift toward cheaper and similar efficacy products.

      CMS moving to a "pay for performance" model could eventually cap the entire reimbursement for "healing a DFU or VFU" to something like $3,000 or $4,000. Above we noted that Apligraf is eligible for reimbursement up to six times in the course of treating a VLU. Things are going to change in our view. The leading products are on their way out. Less
      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • patience will pay off. I am entering back in today. Too close to data announcement.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 2 Replies to ajthedrifter
      • Pressure Ulcer market could be 10x's more than anticipated
        Hospital-acquired pressure ulcers are 10 times more common than Medicare data shows, research suggests
        The Medicare program often paints a far rosier picture of hospitals' pressure ulcer rates than is indicated by data collected bedside by nurses, according to a newly published study.

        The underlying challenges identified by the University of Michigan researchers — of identifying and coding pressure ulcers — are familiar to long-term care providers. Hospitals' administrative data is based on billing data generated by hospital coders, who interpret medical record notes left by physicians and wound care teams. Medicare considers this type of data to determine how many pressure ulcers occur at a hospital, which is posted on the Hospital Compare website and used in calculating financial penalties.

        The researchers compared this administrative data with “surveillance data,” which was derived from the results of bedside skin assessments given by nurses. The team looked at 2 million all-payer administrative records from about 450 California hospitals and quarterly surveillance data from 213 hospitals in the state.

        Overall, the surveillance data resulted in pressure ulcer rates that were about 10 times higher than the rates based on administrative data, the researchers discovered.

        "We found drastic differences in performance for bedsore rates depending on which type of data was reviewed — hospitals could be graded as either superior or below average depending on the type of data used," said lead author Jennifer Meddings, M.D., M.Sc., an assistant professor in the Department of Internal Medicine.

        The findings indicate the need for a more standardized approach to identifying and accounting for pressure ulcers, according to an editorial that accompanied the study, which was published Tuesday in the Annals of Internal Medicine. The editorial was written by Barbara Pieper, Ph.D., RN, from Wayne State University, and Robert S. Kirsner, M.D., Ph.D., from the University of Miami Miller School of Medicine.

        “All providers need to learn pressure ulcer assessment and terminology and correctly record this information no matter how many other diagnoses a patient has," Pieper and Kirsner wrote. Less
        Sentiment: Strong Buy Less
        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • You can certainly pick up all you want at 50 cents. I would bet there are millions of shares that will continue to hit the ask between 50 and 53 cents. The question is, will those sellers lose their patience and start dumping blocks under 50 cents if the buyers decide they have enough shares. Just far too many shares of this stock for sale.

    • YOU MUST KEEP IN MIND that the board of directors own millions of shares of Cyto. If it were not for the board of directors there would be no Cyto. Keep this in mind when you talk about management.

      • 3 Replies to kpmmm
      • If the vast majority of those shares were purchased with real money, rather than given as compensation (for what?) things would be different here. I doubt that Jordan is very happy with management at all. It is all about skin in the game. Management never buys. They have your skin in the game, not theirs. This is a red flag to any potential investor who spends any time looking at this company. If management can raise money from some of the big shareholders to fund the company one last time, that would be a big green flag for investors.

        Do you think the BOD provides any independent oversight of management?

      • unless things have changed drastically since a few months ago it's really one David Emerson Jordan (former wall streeter, not a scientist) who has actually purchased shares in the open market who has about 8MM shares, and even he sold a bunch when it was in the 2+ range. His last purchase was several months ago, even through the positive operational developments that have occurred. How he puts up with the terrible financial dealings by the top executives that have destroyed shareholder value in the short term is beyond belief. Don't think other board members hold significant shares other than the options they've been granted annually. Our CEO knows better than to buy shares when he's filed the paperwork to allow for 13MM shares to be sold into the market by the largest shareholders of the company, even after the positive CMS decision. That this firm hopefully will succeed despite the malevolent forces from within....

      • It's more like: if there weren't enough investors, there would be no Cyto. This board of directors is "awesome": this is where we are headed:. The clinical study applications for coverage pursuant to NCD-CED must be received by August 2, 2014. After reviewing the data, CMS will make a final decision on coverage. How much data can they provide Kp? You think it will suffice ? Other than that every thing is rosy: management is credible, visibility fantastic, cash position as good as apple's, and share price at all time high. This is what this BOD has delivered so far while accumulating the millions of shares you are referring to

        Sentiment: Hold

    • Mr. Rosendale answers to the board of directors and if he is not doing a good job they can fire him.

    • the 1/14 SEC filing states differently..

      new filing..., must read...1/10/14..ENJOY..
      sec-filings/140110/CYTOMEDIX-INC_8-K/v364962_ex99-. place in the search engin and enjo

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to noworrybhappy
      • What we learned at our meeting with management is that AutoloGel, reimbursed at $411 average per treatment, is a highly profitable product to both Cytomedix and the hospital outpatient facility or physician's office. We believe Cytomedix was previously selling AutoloGel "at cost" in 2013, which was around $74. Assuming Cytomedix looks to provide around $100 in profit per use to the facility or physician's office, that means they can wholesale AutoloGel around $311 and still capture 70% gross margin. Assuming roughly six treatments to heal a wound, along with two rounds of debridement, AutoloGel should provide over $1,300 in gross profit to Cytomedix and over $1,000 in gross profit to the facility or physician to heal a wound. It's a whole new ballgame for the company in 2014.

        Management told us the registry programs required for Coverage with Evidence Development (CED) are also on track at Cytomedix. By the end of the year, management expects to have roughly 1,000 patients enrolled in all four programs combined. The company currently has nine sales representatives out in the field promoting the product, with a goal of 30 by the end of the year. We went back and looked at the magnitude of business that Advanced BioHealing (ABH) was doing with Dermagraft in 2011 prior to its acquisition by Shire Pharmaceuticals. ABH had Dermagraft sales near $150 million annualized at the time of the deal, with about 100 full-time representatives. That equates to around $1.5 million per rep. If Cytomedix can match even half that efficiency, with a goal of 30 reps in the field at year-end 2014, Cytomedix could be doing $15 million in revenue with AutoloGel in 2015. That's an incredible ramp!

        In August 2013, Cytomedix partnered its Angel Concentrated PRP system by licensing the rights to Arthrex, Inc. in return for $5 million in cash and future low-teens royalties (we model 13%). We think was a wonderful transaction for Cytomedix, and one where the market really hasn't come to grips with the potential upside Arthrex, Inc. brings to the table. For example, based on analysis of previous quarterly reports, we believe Angel delivered around 15-20% net margin to Cytomedix. On sales of around $8 million over the trailing twelve months, that's a net profit of $1.2 to $1.4 million. At 13% royalty, all that needs to happen for Cytomedix to have essentially made a good decision here is for Arthrex, Inc. to do around $10 million in Angel sales. That's only $2 million more than Cytomedix was doing itself, promoting with 10 contract sale representatives.

        Arthrex, Inc. has over 1,500 sales representatives! Arthrex, Inc. also has the potential to package Angel with its existing bone marrow aspirate cell suspension products, its BioCartilage® matrix, its Autograft osteochondral repair system, or its existing PRP autologous systems. Arthrex, Inc. is going to turn Angel from an $8 million product to a $40-50 million product in our view. The royalties to Cytomedix are going to dwarf the previous sales in a few years. This was an amazing transaction by the company to reduce costs and drive the top-line, and investors have completely missed it.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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