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Christopher & Banks Corporation Message Board

  • scriabinop23 scriabinop23 Nov 30, 2012 9:30 AM Flag

    notes on estimates

    Notes on the details posted in the other msg... If I just bump other analyst consensus by 10% to 119MM, they get to 0.045. As well, this is their peak quarter. This is assuming the most optimistic merchandising margins repeat, which they said no on! Second example shows what happens assuming you get a 200bp bump in inventory cost (which is somewhat closer to what they project) for 4Q; in this case we have a loss even with those extremely optimistic revenues...

    Their merchandising margins are back to 'good old days' given the print, look at the statements... Remember last adjusted 4Q was 99.06MM. I'm projected a 20% bump, based off just increasing analyst ests by 10%. Part of that justifiably comes from the extra week, part from an improvement. A good case could be made for 5MM-10MM lower, but I won't bother....

    See for yourself historical merchandising costs when the stock was much much higher in price for expectancy of margins in the future. Its in the 10KT -- Page 32 has this. Page 77 has the normalized 2011 4Q number.

    This company had to liquidate investments to pay for inventories... And op cashflow still negative!! Maybe not bankrupt, but be very careful coming quarters on the quality of these results. The news was priced in - its not going to zero, but its not .40 of earnings a year either.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

 
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