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Canada Southern Petroleum (CSPLF) Message Board

  • LucaPacioli1492 LucaPacioli1492 Jul 28, 2006 4:30 PM Flag

    Who WOULD tender? Not Arnhold, not "us"

    it's very doubtful that it would be Gruss or anyone who bought after the $7.50 "signal".I doubt COS will even announce what the result was and suspect it will be the same order as that claimed this week by SNG (sic!). There's always a fringe of fools who don't have a clue or screw up their instructions. Aside from this "noise" amount, and captive shares owned by any "conspirators", I can't see who would tender to COS. The fools have already sold to stronger hands ( or have become captive shares, limited by law ).

    The BOD was totally disingenuous in their PR:
    "Without a formal amended offer from Canadian Superior, the Board is not in a position to provide a formal recommendation to shareholders, ****and they then go on to do just that ****
    "other than to reiterate the Board's strong and unanimous recommendation that shareholders accept the Canadian Oil Sands offer and tender their shares to it." ***If they can't properly evaluate the "new" bid, how can they discharge their fiduciary obligation and recommend against it? Also, they conveniently left off any mention of the new bid's claim that the value was Cdn$17.10. They do not mention the estimate of Cdn$10/sh for 25% BECAUSE that clearly implies that 100% is worth Cdn$40/sh.

    Now, I agree that the SNG bid uses our own money and assets but it is still ARGUABLY better than the $13.10 COS cash bid on offer. The net profit participation offered can have an upside for the PV, as well as a downside, so cash is not obviously superior.

    N.B. I would NOT tender to the SNG offer, of course, but neither will I to the COS offer.****

    Prediction: If Arnhold, Gruss, et al ( and there are other financial buyers )are as astute and patient as I suspect, the BOD may be replaced in whole or in part, certainly by next SH meeting and possibly earlier if the CSW charter permits. It's problematic that what the BOD has done is actionable in court, or that it's worth pursuing them in that manner. What is NOT problematical is that they emanate an ill smell as a proper BOD.As the BOD treats SHs so will Shs treat the BOD.

    It's only too bad that the BOD isn't forced to tender THEIR shares to COS at the $13.10 price.There's more left in this puppy and it will be a shame if these characters benefit.

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    • Hello Luca,

      What happened? Did Arnold have some difficulties with your PV calculations?

      While you're recommending buying on margin, Arnold is selling at less than the bid price. You may recall that on Friday (July 31), I suggested that the Arbs were selling.

    • Has COS extended their offer yet?

    • No one seems to have commented on something I noticed last week. I wrote a post about it but decided to hold it up until I had a chance to tend to my own garden today.

      Take a look; perhaps you'll want to margin your shares to buy more. There's the rare time in poker and life when it's appropriate to "go all in". Today is really crazy; you can buy stock for < COS's tender price and the very worst thing that can happen to your investment is for the COS tender to succeed.

      The insight here is the limit on the downside. Margin should not be used to gamble on just an upside.

    • as that clearly is another option especially if one has the cash to spend. I absolutely believe the shares are worth more than 13.10 but, unfortunately, do not have more to spend. I was contemplating selling 1/2 but am now more inclined to stick with a hold and let it play out.

    • That is to buy more today before the outcome of the COS tender is fixed in stone.

      I'll post something I wrote on Friday but decided not to post until I had sufficient time today.

      Meanwhile, I'm amazed that people didn't understand what the "net profit participation" of SNG was until they spelled it out as a tradable Arctic royalty Unit. No imagination. The Kotaneelee actually has REAL royalty interests in a trust at Computershare Trust ( previously at Montreal Trust ). That one's a true royalty interest because it pays a percentage of the GROSS sales from the Kotaneelee field. The proposed units from SNG are based on carried interests and don't start until the working interests' investments are paid back and after deduction for operating expenses so it's a stretch to call them "royalty" units but the document will spell it out clearly so that's OK.

      All of a sudden, the SNG offer appears not quite so "goofy" and hard to understand ( not that it was before ). Whether the 25% unit is worth Cdn$10 right now is another matter but, if it is, the totality of CS's Arctic interests are now worth Cdn $40.

      Thus, Greg of SNG is a creative and aggressive guy but he is still proposing to "pay" us with things we presently own outright ( cash and all of the carried interests in the Arctic ). Nevertheless, he points up his opinion that the Arctic interests are worth Cdn$40. ( Actually, he's trying to get the difference for his present SNG shareholders.) As the offer became plausible --but still, note, not worth tendering to-- and probably worth more than $13.10 in cash, SNG shares went up by 10%.

      Note to the BBBrain: you seem not to have understood that the 25% Royalty Unit is supposed to be worth Cdn$10 as a present value ( since it was derived from an imputed value to gas reserves which are in place today and, he says, might be sold today for Cdn$0.65/MCF ). Whether it is, or not ( or less or more ) is another matter since Greg's calculation is based on a simple but possible irrelevant assumption. Perhaps coincidentally, his seemingly arbitrary rate produces a value that comes close to estimates based on more detailed PV calculations from the CERI report.

    • Or anyone else who has half a brain...I predict Numbface will disapear just like Barnstormer did. August l is only hours away...he and his staff probably shut down their boiler room over the week end.

    • Please explain PV. Thanks

    • The SNG was a complete joke and you are a complete dipshit.

    • On Aug 1st, we'll see what the shareholders think of the COS offer and the rcommendation of the BOD.

      IMHO, the ill smell is emanating from your BS postings.


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