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Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. Cla Message Board

  • kevin_f_1999 kevin_f_1999 Apr 20, 2011 6:11 PM Flag

    I think a few people on here have never been to a McDonalds in Latin America

    I was desparate to get into this but I was terrified when I saw that it has a PE of 50+. After that I found that it's earnings have gone down for three consecutive years. I will get in someday but I am no longer so anxious. Also, I spend about two months a year in Mexico and I caution that the quality control of McDonalds in Latin America that I have seen is not the same as in the United States. My niece used to work at a What-a-Burger in Guadalajara which was changed to a McDonalds and everyone I know liked it better before the change. Also, it is wrong to assume that people, at least in Mexico, will flock to McDonalds just because they worship American brand names. They are not as naive as we imagine and I can honestly say that my aunt lives two blocks from a McDonalds and she has probably never stepped foot in it in her life. Why would she when they have the absolute awesomest tacos in the world one block away all night long for ten pesos a piece. Having said all of this I think this is an awesome stock in the long term and I WILL buy it, but I also think that it was more than fully valued, based on PE, growth, and equity at the original target price of 13 dollars a share. Remember seven to ten million shares a day is not small time investors that buy with passion and nostalgia. These are ETF funds and mutual funds managers that have no emotional ties to stocks. At some point they will have made their money and they will sell on fundamentals, with no emotional attachement at all. Hopefully, because that is when I hope to buy.

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    • I am from India and when MCD was entering India a few years ago, people were very negative about their chances against the local players coz Indians prefer first to eat at home or a typical indian meal out. But look at what MCD has achieved in the few years here. There is hardly any space at any of their fast growing outlets and youngsters queue up to get their favourite burger.

    • Sounds like you're saying you're going to buy it anyway.

      Given that I'd buy part now and the other half after earnings.

      You're right, it can go down a couple. Could also take off forcing you to catch it.

      Just a thought.

      Good Luck.

    • Anyone on here ever been to Brazil and/or a McDonalds in Brazil? Anyone know what percent of their stores are in Brazil? I have always dreamed of going someday. No matter what, I feel confident that they will have toilet paper and a toilet seat in the bathroom. That is what makes McDonalds in Mexico work for me.

    • Earnings realease is on May 5th and I anticipate a large swing one way or another on that day. If it is bad I will buy it, if it is good I will be excited and eventually buy it anyway, just waiting for a couple of dividend payments in May. IRA's really make you wait around sometimes because you can't just go down and add more to the account in order to buy something.

    • I would not sell. I rarely sell stocks once I buy them. I can't time a bottom. I will be selling Supervalu to buy this. Supervalu has been going up and this has been going down so I am trying to time it. It is just gambling. We will see. I do want to buy this though. Just waiting for the two to cross. I have my roth entirely invested and I can't add money to it so I have to kind of wait around sometimes before I can buy new stuff. Still hoping for 20 but not confident it will get there. Might miss it all together. Anyway, I wish you luck, it is not like I am rooting for this to go down. It would just make it easier for me to buy.

    • You might be right on a pullback to 20, possibly slightly less.

      The multiple is high. We'll need an earnings report to justify it.

      Good Luck.

    • I like kevin's viewpoint, even though he only considers Mexico. Don't know what Bazil will add to the equation. I can be patient and wait for a pullback to 20 or so.

    • so since i'm underwater only $200.00 i have a chance to sell everything now and buy back lower.

      what would you do?

    • $21.98....not nineteen.

      underwater.

      drowning in RED.

      What should i do?

      hold, sell, ????

    • Well since it never traded below 20.80 I would add liar to your list of admirable traits. You probably have 50 shares in your parents trust fund.

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ARCO
9.93+0.03(+0.30%)Jul 28 4:01 PMEDT

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