I've been long the whole time. I guess you think you are Nastradamus now because you had a good month huh?
My advice is don't get over your head. When you get comfortably ahead, scale back. Why do you think I scaled back last month? I was WAY out in front of JNK's performance.
In the last 3 months I was early to the party, lightened up, still made more money, then got back late to the party.
My strong sells should be taken with a grain of salt; it means I WANT it to fall, it doesn't mean I'm shorting it. In fact, my broker will not allow JNK shorting.
Anyways, because you are so incessant, I will tell you why I have had the change of heart. Recently I have had quite a few friends start getting interviews for jobs after ZERO interviews for years. This came more or less out of no where 2 weeks ago. Employers have apparently recently started to panic for quality workers.
So, that is why I have my hold rec rather than sell. I have some confidence, but I'd like it cheaper.
No, I've lightened up quite a bit over the past week. I think there is still some upside but risk/reward is no longer very favorable. The spread vs treasuries have come in alot over the past couple months and interest rates have at least as much upside than downside in the short run.
According to the ML high yield index junk bond interest rates as of today are at 7.35% - only 400 points over the 10 year treasury bond. Over the past 20 years the spread has gotten as low as 250-300 over, but if interest rates rise would wipe out any upside in the nav.
And yamaha, what have you ever contributed to this board?