I generally agree with you, however I see the potential for upside for the business even if the economy heads south. Why? Because in economic downturns businesses focus on cost control and BBSI offers a highly efficient, outsourced, back-office solution. BBSI has the scale to be competitive and still make money so they pick-up both new outsourcing clients and business from the competition. When things improve, they can come out of the gate strong and gradually raise fees. It's a cycle of "grow business during downturns and grow profitability during upturns". So I don't necessarily see downturns as all bad, but I would agree that you have to be patient to reap the full harvest from this stock.
I've held BBSI for several years, gradually increasing my stake when the opportunity arose, and I plan to stay in for at least 3-5 more years and maybe "forever".
Honestly, I don't see a downturn in the next few years. I see more of the same for our economy...just sort of plodding along. As far as BBSI? I see a continued slow expansion but not necessarily a big price movement. $35-40 for 2013 and the dividend hitting .15 by the end of the year...why .15? It's a round number. Still, a $5 price move is about a 16% increase. My cost basis of $10.97 is looking pretty good! Too bad I didn't go "ALL IN"...sigh. Differing Opinions out there?