I think there is a difference in guessing on the future price of a commodity and reading shipping trade journals where the ship yard construction is monitored.
I do not remember the name or the article where I read the story on world wide shipping construction on tankers.
I read another article where Iran is going to acquire its own fleet instead of depending on outside shipping companies to move its oil to market.
Google Iran oil tankers and you should be able to see the article I read about 15-20 tankers being delivered to Iran's national oil company during the next 6-12 months. This oil company could end up with a bigger fleet than TNP over the next few years.
The point I am making is that ship building yards are building lots of tankers and the supply is going up and going to create a surplus. It is bad enough that oil tanker rates have declined 50% or more. Increase the supply of these things over the next 1-2-3 years and you have a major problem developing for tanker companies.