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Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited Message Board

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  • richardleeds richardleeds Sep 29, 2009 1:16 PM Flag

    Reasons TNP and others to move higher...

    Your assumption of a 7% dividend is not realistic. The dividend was cut to .30 cents which is a 3.75% dividend yield since the dividend is only paid twice each year. In addition, I think you should expect that the company will pre-announce at the end of the year or early next year that the dividend is going to be cut further to .15 cents.

    It is not worth owning a company in a sector that is going to create a capacity increase of 30%.

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    • TNP stands to make $1.2-$2.40 ... according to the current dividend policy...

      "TEN intends to continue to pay cash dividends representing between one-quarter and one-half of ordinary net income..."

      so we assume they continue to pay .30 next dividend...
      Full year would be $.60 this will help us see what the company is expecting for the full year...
      .60 x 2 = $1.2 per share (only .03 profit the next 2 quarters.... should be much much more...)
      .60 x 4 = $2.40 per share...

      the highest analyst expectations are $1.75
      TNP has already made $1.17 this year... $.66 Q1... $.51 Q2... assuming TNP makes around $.20-$.30 for the next 2 quarters... that should be around $1.50-1.75... x.25

      assuming they pay 1/4th net income on 1.75 that is only .44 cents or so...

      my expectations are a conservative...1.75... at 30% div pay out ratio... they would pay $.60... so based on the numbers i believe TNP will make about 1.60-1.8 per share this year... and paying out a 30% ratio...

      • 1 Reply to amarek1984
      • i think you're putting the cart before the horse.
        div is determined on PAST earnings.

        FWIW analyst concensus is 1.34 for 09 and 1.59 for 2010, but at nearly $16/share, that's a PE of 10, which is steep compared to some other shippers. See PE for bulker NM (5*2010) or container line DAC (5).

        i took a nibble but after I recompute NAV (it's been a while) i may toss it back.


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