actually the scrapping estimates have been falling short and still the numbers of ships and the cargoes they can carry are increasing each year.
More ships in 2012 than 2011. What do you think that does for rates and profits?
These shares are either going lower or higher. I'm predicting lower, you are predicting higher.
I do not see how more ships in 2012 compared to 2011 does not result in bankruptcies which impacts the sector in terms of share price.
Also, I believe the world economy in 2012 will be more negative than 2011. Remember, Bank of America is going to let 40,000 to 45,000 people go next year. The European banks need to increase capital ratios, so they need more cash. European banks have lost 25-50% of their value in the last quarter. How do you think they get more cash? They cut overhead.
The post office wants to cut 200,000 people next year to eliminate $6-7-8 billion loss per year.
Governments in Europe and the U.S. are bloated. They are going to make cuts. This all has an impact of spending, not only at corporate levels but by a scared population.
When BofA cuts 45,000 people how many buildings hold those people. They are going to be empty and turn the power off.
At $4 per gallon gas in the U.S. and $7 per gallon gas in Italy where I just visited, people drive less.
Too many ships, people spending less, less demand for energy in 2012, what does this mean for shippers?