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Aruba Networks, AŞ Message Board

  • nclag nclag Jan 30, 2013 8:56 PM Flag

    BlackRock takes 5.83% position

    Filed Schedule 13G today. Had 2.9M shares per last quarterly filing. They raised their stake to 6.5M shares so picked up 3.6M shares in Q4. It looks as though they bought the shares right at the end of the year.

    Some others, however, have already filed and reduced their holdings last quarter. Kornitzer, Wellington, and two others decreased holdings, but not by huge amounts. They probably took some profits after the solid Q4.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • V-e-r-y impressive, nclag. You never disappoint.

      However, let's remember that if, indeed, one or more of these institutional investors initiated their positions late in December, isn't the "rally" from there a bit long in the tooth? If they bought on 12-31-12, the closing price of ARUN was $20.74. What was today's closing price? Looks like $21.15. Not much of a profit is it, or 6 weeks or trading?

      Let's review something I mentioned some months [or was it years?] ago.

      Whenever an institutional investor makes a purchase, even BEFORE they place one dollar at risk, they will always decide on a "buy point" and a "sell point". The already know before hand, where they are going to SELL. When their chosen stock[s] approaches that "sell point", they sell. No excuses, no alibis, no trepidation. Blam, blam, blam...job done.

      Some days ago, I wrote that something did not smell right with ARUN. Today could very well be the second red flag to fall at the feet of the retail investor. Yes, ARUN does have a 1.7 beta; it is a very volatile stock to be sure.

      Three of the last 6 days have been to the downside; the volume does NOT always need to be high for the smoke to show. The February 7th and 8th down days were on lower than normal volume. Good thing, right? Maybe not...take a closer look...

      Both those days, ARUN closed very close to the lows for both days. The UP days? They have been on very poor volume.

      The R/S has dropped almost 30 points since February 5th. This is not an indication of investor favoritism.

      I'm suggesting that anyone who sincerely values the capital that they have in ARUN to watch that basket v-e-r-y carefully. Watch the volume and where ARUN closes e-v-e-r-y day, then compare what you see. If you see a declining pattern,'ll have to make up your own mind how you wish to handle your investment.

      Remember this, stocks fall [and stay fallen] a lot faster than they rise from the fall.

    • Looks like JP Morgan picked up 3M shares last quarter.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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