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BYD Company Ltd. Message Board

  • prilichnij_chelovek prilichnij_chelovek Aug 28, 2011 2:36 PM Flag

    I doubled down at 1.90 - good move?

    Okay, so here is the down low. I love the prospects of this space and this company is endorsed by warren and charlie. Charly is really putting his money where is mouth is in this one - encouraging his own family to invest heavily in this.

    Okay, so I bought at the wrong time initially - I threw in around 5 +/- a share. I have watched my investment piddle away to pennies since then until last week when this thing was trading at 1.90 or so. I couldn't resist then and doubled down on my initial investment. Now I am averaged in at 3.45. Now, it's not the best price to be in at, but I am willing to wait ten years on this one.

    What is everyone else in at ? Did anyone else double down when this thing hit the below 2 mark?

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    • i doubled down at 3, bought the first 1,ooo shrs. 5+.
      hope munger & buffet is as patient as i am. would like to hear some good news from byd, just so it'll comfort me.

    • Check this out.

      "If that's what they've decided to do, maybe the EV was just smoke and mirrors, like their financial reports."

      "It just seems too risky to me, especially since so many other Chinese companies have been scams that are trading by pink list now, or just went out of business."

      "China has replaced the old Soviet Union as the Evil Empire."

      Lots of negativity out there in BYD land. Of course, none of this was true while the F's were climbing to $10 plus. In my opinion, BYD is less speculative today than back then.

      That's what makes a market.

      • 2 Replies to mvmitchell99
      • The market often reinforces itself by making these things up - I do agree with G. Soros on markets being inherently in disequilibrium. This board is a microcosm of what goes on in the real world - there is an underlying condition that truly does have an impact on the price, then people who have less than perfect information make up other reasons for the price drop because they don't know the real reason, thus reinforcing and increasing the price drop. I try to detach myself from Mr. Market as much as possible - I pay attention, but I focus on buying a company at a good price.

      • Check This Out:

        "Lots of negativity out there in BYD land."

        "Of course, none of this was true while the F's were climbing to $10 plus".

        "In my opinion, BYD is less speculative today than back then".

        "That's what makes a market".

        ------------------------------------------------

        They were selling cars, and there was plenty of positive news back then.

        Now it's all negative.

        The company has lost the majority of their market share.

        The SP has plummeted.

        They are laying off the majority of their sales staff.

        What do you see that makes this a solid or safe investment, and worth buying more shares in it?

    • I thought of doubling down too.

      But with all of the negative articles I've read lately, like the collapse of their market share, making a copy of other company's cars, even doubt now about the validity of their battery technology.

      Now they're going to use the proceeds from a recent IPO to develop a gas powered vehicle to sell.

      If that's what they've decided to do, maybe the EV was just smoke and mirrors, like their financial reports?

      It just seems too risky to me, especially since so many other Chinese companies have been scams that are trading by pink list now, or just went out of business.

      China has replaced the old Soviet Union as the Evil Empire.

      JMO.

    • It's a difficult call. It's purely a speculative buy currently. If you believe in the company and are speculatively minded now wouldn't be a bad time to buy.

      There has been much bad news that has beaten down the stock's price. As for an value investing as Warren Buffett does now is not the time. Sales are down and so are the net profits, making it overpriced even at these levels. A value investor will not buy even at these levels.

      When W. Buffett initially bought the value of the company was inexpensive (sales from the battery sector and vehicles were strong and profits were good).

      I hope this helps. I myself believe in the company but am not fooling myself, they may not make it. They bet the future on the EV, no one for decades has been able to crack the battery problems, not to say they couldn't be the ones to do it.

      I have a value of $1.30. If sales improve so will my value. At this time it is strictly a speculative purchase. Not to say it was bad buy. They have a phenomenal structure and an improvement in any division could be reflected in the share price.

      Good Luck

    • There might be hope but you'll have to hold for the long haul. What if it goes to $1 or below? Could happen.

    • Do you now think that $5 was a bad price?

      What technique did you use that led you to believe that $5 +/- was an O.K. price when you bought originally?

      Did you use the same technique when you bought at $1.9?

      I nibbled on y's at $4 (= f's at $2). This was the first time I have bought. I have been watching for some time now. I said that I would buy (based on what I think the business is worth) in the low $2's (for f's). I thought that price and value would eventually cross. I think they did.

      I was hoping (still am) that these shares will continue to fall. I will buy up to 600 y's at prices less than or equal to $4.

      These purchases represent a very small portion of my overall stock portfolio (< 1%). I like the business, but am aware that there used to be numerous auto makers in the US, and now there are just a couple. Also, I trust the CEO, but not necesarilly the Chinese government.

      Good luck

      • 2 Replies to mvmitchell99
      • I did like this company at $5 and if I were to do it again, given the way I value the business, I would still buy at $5. I like to hear the other sides of things - so I thought a few bears might be on here to beat on me. :) I hope that I can hold this stock for 10 - 20 years. I see a great future for this business and the Chinese economy/consumer. This is certainly not my number 1 holding, but it is my number 1 foreign holding.

      • I do not see any catalyst moving the stock price from these levels right now.
        But I do also think most of the bad news has been priced in.
        So if you like BYD long term, this might be a good time to start accumulating more stock.

 
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