Check out the absolutely perfect reverse head & shoulders for the S&P 500 starting in August 2001!!
This is the most powerful looking chart formation in decades!!
Look for S&P 1500+ by 2006.
I thought the following from Tom Gardner of TheMotleyFool.com (Note:I'm not attaching Gardner's comments to support his subscription service, I just think his comments tie in well with the "state of the union" concerning JOE at this time) tied in well with Auroleon�s theory that JOE has not yet been fully discovered by Wall Street (an opinion I strongly support, by the way).
In fact, I wouldn�t be surprised if most of the analysts that cover JOE don�t even realize that most of the FL panhandle is in the central time zone. As Auroleon has stated it is obvious�once these analysts realize that there is more to Florida than SoBe, Naples, Tampa, Orlando and Daytona Beach, it will be too late to get JOE at a decent price/share. Baby Boomers throughout the southeast have already discovered the panhandle and it is only a matter of time before the analysts do so as well.
Keep the faith and bet on JOE�.I have no doubt that we will all share in the wealth of this company within the next few years.
"Individual investors can make money in the market in many ways.
But following Wall Street trends isn't one of them.
One of the best ways to sustainably beat the market is to get in before Wall Street does... to find companies before the large institutional investors do. As smaller investors, without Wall Street's pressure to place big bets on popular companies, we have a distinct advantage. We can invest in GREAT businesses and their stocks when the big boys can't. Legally CAN'T.
Remember, there was a day when Wall Street thought...
� Wal-Mart was a joke run by country bumpkins.
� Microsoft would get steamrollered by IBM.
� Southwest Airlines would get eaten alive by the national airlines.
At one point, each of these companies was unknown. Underrated. Undervalued. Yet each obliterated the market's average return for years. For decades. There are more of them out there. Let's find these hidden gems together."
It would be great if 2005 were a positive year for US equities. I would certainly make more money than in a bearish environment. As far as for shorting financials, I was just commenting on a vulnerable sector. Personally, I am far too conservative (cowardly maybe) to be a short-seller. The potential downside on a long position is -100%, while the potential losses from a short position are theoretically unlimited, although all shorts cover in the real world.
Regarding JOE, this company is still undervalued, just not to the extent that it was in the past. I have owned JOE since 1991, along with some other "land banks", that I add to from time to time. I believe that the management is both honest and shareholder friendly. The company possesses a unique and non-reproducible asset base, which I think of as a very long-term call option on the future of Florida. In my biased opinion, the Panhandle is the best part of the state and in the past few years, it appears that others are beginning to share that view. JOE will avoid making the mistakes that were made in much of south Florida, thus adding to the alure of their developments.
DynamiteMike: I don't believe in putting all of my eggs in any basket, but every portfolio should have some real estate exposure. With REITs trading at historically high price/FFO ratios and consequently low dividend yields, the REOCs look better for a real estate investment. I suggest reading the last report for the Third Avenue Real Estate Fund, which hold a lot of JOE stock. In fact, you can get some great investment ideas from the smart folks at Third Avenue, by reading their reports and researching their picks. Marty Whitman and his team have an excellent long-term record. They are "deep value" investors who try to buy dollar bills for 50 to 60 cents, so you can understand their interest in JOE.
Good Luck to All
Always enjoy your good posts here.
Your point about the calculator pricing and quality the past 20 years(and all other tech & communication innovations for that matter) is incalculably important and brings home how impossible it is to measure inflation rates.
Market Bears are all over the government with criticism for inculcating this inherent deflation into the CPI index, claiming that it understates real inflation.
I think the phenom that you describe may explain why we have this seeming paradox or unprecedented state of stable prices, sharply declining dollar, escalating asset prices, low savings, and growing debt.
What I make of it, for now at least, is that we can continue with sharply higher stock and real estate prices; that while long term interest rates will rise, won't be enough to weaken those prices; and that the weak dollar will take care of the current account deficit for the next couple of years.
Anyway, that is the way I am playing 2005, i.e. load up on tech and real estate.
This could be wrong and I may change my mind.
nice posts...points all well taken
my feeling at looking at historical perspectives is that the world is so much different it is hard to compare
in 1973 I bought my first calculator.. a texas instrument it cost me $125... inflation adjusted it would be over $500...today that calculator could be had for a couple of bucks..virtually free
there were no computers on everyone's desk... no cell phones.. and no INTERNET... just think of our communication on this board and mulitply it by the whole country...wild, no?
I used to live in India... I have a lot of good friends there still... when I call them I use phone cards. Recently the Indian govt finally loosened up the tariff on phone services... the phone card I got this week charged me 5.5 cents a minute. In 1973 that would have been about $5 a minute...or $25 adjusted for inflation.
My point is that anyone in the USA can go into biz today and between the cell phone, internet and cheap global calls a young person without a lot of capital can do wonders on a shoestring
the world is indeed small... if the mid east situation can work out in the next few years we might see a golden age of biz expansion...
meanwhile all the other comments seem to indicate that you all believe as I do that more inflation is coming...fine with me...fine for JOE as it will only reflect in higher underlying valuation
that is if wall street ever begins to understand the nature of JOE... they will as it is all too obvious
That was a great post and I agree with almost everything stated.
My holding banks and insurance companies has me particularly troubled, particularly banks. I mean what's a bank's inventory if not cash which has lost 30% of its value over the last four years?
Anyway, within a month I will be completing the sale of my bank stocks. Do you think JOE is a good basket to place all my eggs? If not, do you have a diversification strategy?
Thanks for your time and for your great post.
I concur with your main points.
With regard to what you call "the two big concerns," i think we should add the falling dollar, consumer debt, and American competitiveness. Of course, one could argue that these problems are all related and integrated but they should be separately noted, i believe. But these are all still long term issues which are only broadly receiving attention now that Greenspan has mentioned them in his last speech. The irrational exuberance can go on for years before we see a major correction(or worse). The barge takes time to change course, especially when it requires changes in the policies of conservative governments like China, Japan, etc.
But I will not get in the way of this market in 2005 and will certainly not be shorting financials. Rather, I plan to ride a big rally, including financials and real estate.