Blackie....Some builders are growing earnings near triple digit rates, yet pe's are below 10 for most part. JOE is growing at half that rate with pe 5x that.
What that tells me is that builders are MUCH more cyclical than JOE and market is giving JOE a premium for less PERCEIVED cyclicality. Right or wrong, that's my take on what market reality is.
Remember, you can't lump their land all together. I don't know how much, but most of that 900k acres is timberland, and I'll bet much of it is wet. $6900 is high for timberland. It is being sold for $3-4k/acre.
When I say that a certain land holding "is worth" $X per acre I mean that it (all of it, not just some parts) could be sold within a reasonable time frame, say two years, for an average price of $X/ac. What do you guys mean when you say that Joe's holdings "are worth" a certain number?
The land they bought at a little over $1000/acre was in a very rural county in Georgia. The beach-front is selling for $1,000,000/acre, not $25,000.
Overall, I think $25,000 is a conservative figure.