Einhorn is dead wrong. JOE land is in NO WAY worth just 1500 an acre. The very statement is absurd, broken, and sadly off base. The bet here is not that JOE land is going to be the next Hilton Head...it simply this:
For the shares to be worth $20/share, the top decile of Joe's 570k acres needs to sell for 15,0000/acre and the next decile needs to sell for just 5,000/acre and the REST can be at Einhorn's incorrect number of 1500/acre.
Fact: WMT, CVS (implied), an internet travel co and a quik mart paid on average 275k/acre this past quarter. Yes...not 1,500 but 275,000/acre. Two extra zeros. Was it a lot of land - no. But for each one of these anchor tenants, JOE will be able to sell through to the Chick Filet, McDonalds, hotels, car rental lots, etc for close to those values. In fact, the entire market cap of JOE could be paid for with 6,545 acres sold for 275,000/acre...and the other 560,000 acres are "free".
Next, let's look at the absurdity on the low end - rural land. Joe sold rural land for an average price of 3,000/acre in the Q. But Einhorn says all of the land (incluiding the 5 miles of linear ocean front and 70k acres of airport adjacency) is only worth 1,500/acre. HOW? Joe just sold rural land for 3,000/acre. So the bottom end land is worth 3,000 but Einhorn says incorrect - its all worth half of that value? Please explain.
Finally, JOE is simply experiencing multiple simultaneous troughs: Florida real estate bust (near trough), BP oil spill trough, and the seasonal summer trough...all in a national economic and banking trough.
If you have time...say 3-5 years...you will make 3-5x on this investment. Given their is zero leverage and time for Joe to adapt and recover with the North Florida economy...this is a terrible short from this point (from 80 is was a dream...from 18, it will be a "short" disaster). Buy all you can for a safe, non leveraged way to play the 3 year turnaround in the economy in North Florida.
ummmm you may wanna re-consider yourself early in the morning... down 8% right now in the AH and SEC is probing.. This thing is in serious trouble... I am short and will not really consider covering until we are at the $15 level, there is a high probability this company goes completely under and stock goes to $0.
Watch and Learn!
I don't see this going to zero. To many big money holders to let this go there. I will watch volume in the AM and that will tell us something. A lot of volume and little change will tell you a lot. Good luck with your short. I do not have a direct position in JOE but own a lot of the funds that are major holders. Good luck to all.
JOE 23 (+3%)
More short pain. How long can this horrible thesis hold while the Benanke prints $$ like confetti? Einstein is really upside down on his long Gold/short JOE thesis today. Does not matter how how your IQ is when you see your clients net worth vaporizing.
I disagree the land is worth 1,200/acre. I say 4,000 an acre. Prove me wrong Einstein now that mo' has turned. Next stop $32.
"Next stop $32."
On what basis? Improving economy? Improving land sales in Florida? JOE becoming profitable?
Anyone can toss around silly numbers. Einhorn can, but backs his up with research, whether you agree with it or not. You do, but have no proof, no research, no facts on which to base your wishful thinking.
I'm surprised you didn't make the $400 call that Leon was making a few years back. He had as much veracity as you do.
JOE 20 (+3%)
Any truth to the Berkshire Hathaway takeover? This makes a lot of sense given the proper time horizon is 10 years (Buffett) not 10 minutes (Einstein).
At what price do you think the shorts have no choice but to cover no matter their incorrect beliefs? Where is the tipping point. The odd thing here is that the stock coulc fly to well ABOVE intrinsic value. A melt up is very possible.
Joe is going to grow cash flow with ground leases such as the parking garage now being built in time for the Spring Break crowd. Parking capacity has been an issue and JOE will own the long term lots. Joe also is going to ground lease at Venture crossing. Currently working on a defense industry share service office cluster for some of the 8,000 defense contractors serving the 8 military bases in the area. The BWI flight is the key here as it links defense in DC to the bases on the Gulf. Other examples include doctors facilities in Port St. Joe, land next to the WMT in Topsail, etc. Joe's land is going to be monetized by current or the next management team.
JOE 18.92 (+6.4%)
Anyone know why the share are trading higher? M&A speculation? Short covering? Airport traffic +179% for the six months? Short seller bogus news plant inviting lawsuits? BP/Hal/Rig settlement for $100mm+? Land just pricing in too cheap a valuation?
Can anyone help us out here?
why in such a panic to know?
you r a long long term investor right?
this stock is dogshit. Only thing that could make this move if berkie announces additional share purchase and short covering. this cash burning vehicle will not turn cash positive for sometime.
Down all day long but JOE ends flat on the day.
JOE 18.63...+9% from low of 17.04
Is the bottom in? Is short attack over? Is Eihorn covering while the free riders hold the bag? Thoughts for 9%+ bounce?
JOE 18.64 (+4.7%)
Clearly some new buyers have entered the equation. Probably a combination of new longs buying at a reasonable cost basis and intelligent shorts who are covering and taking profits.
No cashflow from operations - Bloated SG&A = cash burn.
Asset sales - Bloated SG&A = Cash Burn + asset burn.
Not a good model to follow long term as we can see. Can the airport help to reverse this burn rate?
How long will it take to develop cash generating assets to cover Bloated SG&A?