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Augme Technologies, Inc. Message Board

  • frankenducker frankenducker Jul 11, 2013 8:21 PM Flag

    valuation

    I took a stab at AUGT's valuation, and its trading at a PS (price to sales ratio) of roughly 1.
    In fact it seems that the price floor is almost exactly PS = 1.
    Here's the math:

    rev estimate: 34 mil
    shares outstanding: 129.6 mil
    rev per share: 0.262

    and a share price of 0.26 is the low for today and for the past year.
    and my guess is that there's a lot of buyers out there betting that AUGT is a good buy at PS = 1.

    I've read lots of comments on this board, so no need the re-hash any of it, but for all the good news, bad news, ifs, and risks, buying any going concern at PS = 1 probably a safe bet. To put in another way, AUGT's existing client base is at least the same amount as annual revenue.

    I also crunched the numbers on MM for comparison:

    rev estimate: 270 mil
    shares outstanding: 79.5 mil
    rev per share: 3.39

    And that's a PS of 2.8.
    so if the market decides to re-value AUGT at the same PS as MM, we'd be looking a share price of 0.73.
    And if I was a company in a position to acquire AUGT, I'd consider the same valuation as MM as a fair one (whether I'd offer that much, or more, or less, though is an entirely different matter).
    Not exactly earth-shattering, but at its current share price AUGT looks like a good value.

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    • Einstein's math wouldn't come close to logically explain this company's valuations, why do you think yours makes sense? This is a company that defies all math period. Your best and only last resort, common sense!!!
      Use it in every letter of the word here, it will get you out faster than anything will ever do! We are at a critical and turning point, either they deliver in the promises in the next 2 qtrs. or take more beat down. Retail investors will not move this stock, it needs institutional involvement in a major way. The problem is, very few if any want any piece of it. There's your common sense valuation!!

    • While I agree with the premise of your post and I was buying some shares back today, what your math fails to take into account is the difference in the cash positions of MM and AUGT, which is substantial. Further, price to sales ratios are generally done using TTM revenues, not projected revenues, but since you did it the same way for both companies, it's still pretty close to an apples to apples comparison. I'll do the math at some point if I feel the need, but all the math in the world won't matter if they don't execute. That's the bottom line. I believe they will. I'll explain why in my next post.

    • The problem is with the revenue estimate...there is little confidence that they will meet it.

    • My sentiments exactly Frank. 5 stars for you * * * * * and a big thumbs up.

      I've got AUGT on my radar screen.

      Good luck.