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SPDR Gold Shares Message Board

  • MINCE38 MINCE38 Feb 7, 2008 4:55 AM Flag

    Worst reason to buy gold is....

    Guys, I was just on the site and I was reading what the best days to buy Gold is, and they are all Hindu festival dates in which gold is particularly felt top bring prosperity. But I ask all of many hindu's can actually afford gold!!! Most live in India which is still, despite its growth, a 3rd world country. Also I am sure those dates have been priced into gold loooong ago. I mean, I am a middle class American, and couldnt afford gold jewelery whwen it was $400 an ounce. How many of us middle class here can afford it now? In my opinion, just as you have all the gloom and doom media outlets like CNBC and all over the Internet that are likely very likely influenced by hedge funds as they are making a fortune shorting stocks, we also have to consider that there are many people who's best interest it is in, to have you think gold will be the currency of the future and is going to the moon. Dealers, newsletters, even the exchanges all benefit by the gold mania. I am now long gold myself, but....I trade it. And to me its the big traders and funds who want to see gold break $1000 and are waiting to dump it at some pre-determined level that have the most to gain. We have not seen a correction of any magnitude in gold yet. Dont think its not going to come. Nothing goes straight up. And by the way, when gold tops out, I am going to hate to be one of the masses trying to get thru the exit. It could be a panic of mass proportions. I will tell you one of many reasons why: Because gold is eventaully going to lose its appeal to the public for jewelery as even without inflation. There is a limit to what the middle class will pay for...anything! And we all know, if gold gets too high anhd threatens the jewelery business, a lot of people are going to have vested interest in shorting the hell out of it to push it down, creating a panic. You dont think a jeweler has a maximum price he can have gold go to and not drastically reduce his customer buying. No he cant always make it up in margins! Besides,if the agricultural boom that I hear about is happening, food and grains will be the next gold. You cant eat metal, no matter how much its worth! That said, perhaps if gold gets too high, silver will be a much better bet as the lower and middle classes will start buying silver as jewelery. For all we know in 5 years gold may only be for the rich and us middle and lower classes will be buying silver $150 an ounce. And if you dont think all govt,s will corroberate to prevent a currency crash, think again. My advice is, if you are going to buy gold for a long term investment, buy in incrememnts thruout the year so if a panic comes, you dont get stampeded. After all, historical glamour or not, in the end, its just metal. When milk goes to $5 a gallon in 2 years, who will be buying gold? Its already more than that now if you buy by the half gallon! I went to whole foods to buy organic blueberries and what they wanted for $4.00 would not even make one fruit smoothie! I always have a trigger to go short gold whenever I buy if the panic comes when I am asleep. i buy it both as GLD and in my futures account. To be honest, id like to see gold go back to $400 so middle class people can start buying jewelery again. And if it does, I will be on the short side. See, Im a speculator, not buying and holding at this price! And please...the story of the american dollar losing its value is already priced into gold to a great degree, so that story is getting old too. Could gold go to $1200 this year? Why not? Speculators and the media could drive it up. But there has been way too big of a rally for me to buy and hold now.

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    • How do you define affordable? If you eat lunch each day at a fast food place, and spend 6 dollars a day, thats basically 1440 dollars a year just for lunch. Take your lunch, and buy and ounce of gold instead.
      Dinner and a movie out for two? 70 dollars. Twice a month? 1680 a year. Rent a movie, cook at home, buy another ounce and a half of gold.
      Gold IS AFFFORDABLE for the "middle class" if they stop pissing away money and decide to get serious about their futures.
      I'm middle class, I'm buying gold too.

    • God if I only had a penny for everytime that tired old line is trotted out by the shorts. Can you eat oil? Bricks? Road tar? Yet these items are tangible and have a defined worth. Gold is a medium of exchange kids, GET A CLUE PLEASE. Gold is a basis for easily transportable wealth, barter works well until your trying to haul 500 tons of dirt in exchange for 35 sheep, gold makes it a mite easier to buy the sheep.
      Also, as the dollar slides gold goes up, until the slide stops, heaven knows when, gold WILL go up.
      Ya can't eat it, but you can't eat your paper dollars, can ya?

    • "We have not seen a correction of any magnitude in gold yet. Dont think its not going to come. Nothing goes straight up. And by the way, when gold tops out, I am going to hate to be one of the masses trying to get thru the exit. It could be a panic of mass proportions. I will tell you one of many reasons why: Because gold is eventaully going to lose its appeal to the public for jewelery as even without inflation"

      1) Think of the rise of gold as panic selling out of the Dollar. Gold is not going up in value. The Dollar is going down in value.

      2) Gold lost its appeal between 1980 and 2001. For the rest of the 4979 years since its discovery it has had appeal.

      3) Re: the rest of your post on India. There are 1,000,000,000 people in India.
      Even if you just take those women with some kind of professional education you get to 12 Million
      Even if every woman buys 1/10 oz of gold per year it's >1,000,000 oz gold per year
      = 31 tons.

      • 1 Reply to batshwing
      • Bat----What most on this thread overlook is that in 3world countries most if not all women (families) purchase jewelry with their assets vice putting it in banks is because there are no or too few reliable banks where they live. All (of us) should quit looking at jewelry as only a decoration but also a way which people hold assets in less developed areas of world. BTW they all do it and thieves get killed over there or get their hand(s) cut off. The only good thing about Sharia law is cutting off the hand of f$%^&&* thieves. No slimeball lawyers!!!!!!! Mince is wrong !!

    • 25-Jan-08 Lowcostfoolsgold>"water is already selling for more than a barrel of OIL" Today..."i am a dealer." YOU ARE A LIAR AND A MORON!Hee-hee{;<)

    • Well, the problem is with Stagflation even as the quantity of oil, gold, copper, etc. bought may slow, their prices actually go up.

      I saw this amazing action in the 1970s with severe stagflation ...while people were buying less of everything since it was getting too expensive, prices for gas, oil, fruit, copper, rose sharply. Oil and gold both rose over 400% in the mid-1970s after Nixon removed price controls on oil.

      What you say may sound logical, but it is worng. The drop in th emarket now is simply panic selling. As hyperinflation sets in, commodities such as gold, oil, gas, copper, will all soar very very high. Just take a look at fruit as you mentioned. Grapefruit are now over a dollar a piece here in central texas where we grow tons of it. The guy at Walmart syas they are selling much less but that does not stop the sharp rise in price.

      Gold may dip in the next few weeks but long term it will rise higher then $1150 easily because foreign banks are raising rates making our dollar even cheaper and gold higher.

      Good luck.

    • As you are apparently a gold dealer but confused about the business you are in and even more confused about human nature I’ll spend a while. Six year old Korean children who are telling about all the things they shorted in the past are not going to get explanations.

      Let’s deal with all those broke Indian housewives who are so stupid they have over the years collected 13,000 tons of the worlds fastest appreciating commodity. Some months ago I went to a young girls wedding. I know here as the works as a minimum wage stable girl at my wifes horse riding center. Neither her parents or the grooms family have a pot to pi$s in. Yet they spent close to 30,000 (non tax deductible dollars) on this spread. They now live in an apartment. So these broke stupid Indian ladies are going to their weddings with as such gold as they can lay their hands on impress their girlfriends and have been doing this for thousands of years. Also it’s like saying Dior designer dresses are out as Walmart have suitable garments for $30. Or buying a Cadillac (God forbid). It’s called human nature.

      If people can’t afford 1oz coins then they will buy 1/10oz coins it does not change the reason why us goldbugs collect.

      Yes we have noticed inflation is here. Yes we know where the exit is and nobody is going to run. Don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way though. Are you sure you are in the right business?

    • get off the METHADRINE!!...

    • First let me thank you for taking time in posting your thoughts. I think many are confused and the uncertainty (American dollar, World security) is driving the price up.

    • I think I am starting to hate you.

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