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SPDR Gold Shares Message Board

  • jpmoy99 jpmoy99 Sep 10, 2008 11:26 AM Flag

    I warned you guys last night about Deflation

    Some of you listened. Others argued and pulled me into an esoteric argument on economics.

    Look, I'm here to make money. Not argue about the "government conspiracy" to short gold. I'll repeat myself one last time.

    People are flying to Treasuries and other forms of Dollar instruments -NOT gold. Gold is going to see a massive correction...probably into the low $600s.

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    • JP,

      If the current trend of all markets continue as it is, you will surely be right! Period. In fact, food is the only thing not deflating and who is to say that wont start at anytime as well. Or.........if we really want to go into a depression, let everything deflate and food prices inflate. OMG!!!! We could see rioting in the streets in a year. Fact: FBI reports bank robberies are up these last 12 months due to the economy. And we aint seen nothing yet. This might get scary.

      • 1 Reply to MINCE38
      • It's already happening - in Europe, Latin America, the Gulf States, and Southeast Asia. Economists call it stagflation.

        America is unique because we attract the world's capital. But all we are doing is delaying the inevitable. Eventually stagflation will hit the USA. But not tomorrow and not even next month. Definitely next year though.

        ".........if we really want to go into a depression, let everything deflate and food prices inflate. OMG!!!! We could see rioting in the streets in a year. "

    • You know, for a 22 year old trader, you sure are full of something...thing is the signs of a new trend that you talk about (treasuries, bonds...etc) could turn on a dime! The downtrend in gold is mostly due to margin calls issued to Hedge funds....and at sometime the bleeding will stop (could be any day now), and investors will start buying gold again. We might stay around this range until after the elections...but really now, Gold@ 600??? that is beyond the wildest dreams of anyone who knows anything about economics...oil is still up around 40-60% from last year's levels, and even at this level OPEC is starting to defend it....that alone will put a floor under commodities not to mention all increasing debt on our balance sheet....What we have Ladies and Gentleman is a fake dollar rally!!!! And it is way way overbought....

    • You mean gold or financials? I'm clear on gold right now - no position either way.

      For financials, I use a 2% trailing stop to lock in gains. Otherwise, a 1 ATR stop loss after an initial Fill or Kill Limit order.

    • If I can scalp a few points here and there - why not?

    • Where were you 6 months ago?

      • 1 Reply to arno009
      • I was long gold and short financials.

        I sold all my gold on Monday morning at a profit. Why? I watched the bond markets and saw the Asians retreat to treasuries...like they always do in bad times.

        Treasuries rise in deflation (yield curve falls). Treasuries sink on inflation (yield curve rises).

        Gold holders ask yourselves - "I am right in the long term...but do I have enough money to beat the Bank of China?"

 
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