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  • ben.franklin36 ben.franklin36 Oct 9, 2008 6:56 PM Flag

    BAnk to bank lending

    Nice question for which I have no answer and look to auri fo rone.

    Kotlikoff predicted some of this three years ago in his brilliant book The Coming Generational Storm. He wrote the gov must...and will print trillions of pesos to pay off debt and "stimulate" the economy so as to avoid major depression....we see this now. Mr K. also says this will result in Hyperinflation of hard assets...he specifies holding inflation hedges oil, gold, gold miners, China stocks, and inflation protected T-Bills......who knows? He has been right so far.

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    • Thanks for the reply(s). Auri may have me on ignore (I might have ticked him off once or twice--but no more than twice).

      If he responds, I first expect a slap on the back of the head. I then expect some kind of statement saying that it won't help (and I wouldn't disagree--actually, I probably wouldn't dare to disagree). But then if I am lucky, he may give some really good insight like he usually does.

      In the meantime, I have seen this name "Kotlikoff" a number of times, and I think it would be a good idea to pick up a book and learn it. Thanks again for your comments and insights.

      • 1 Reply to usakmatt
      • Matt and all,

        Firstly, differences of opinion does not pi$$ me off and I can't even remember anything offensive you said.

        To answer the thought of the govt taking over the banks is like bats would say, a generic thought, and I would not trust this govt to run a urinal. There are cases in Switzerland and the UK of govts running banks. This gives much more time to unravel the crap behind closed doors and learn a lesson. So I offer to the board as to how this exactly could be doe and there are precedents in history for this being done well.

        This all makes me very sad as I love this country as much as the next guy and this is globally destroying the markets and it's long term damage being done to markets, industry and confidence. Time is a great healer and we can recover as other nations have done. Japan royally screwed it up about 15 years ago, the Nikkei (40,000) to this day never recovered and the nation never assumed former glory (yet). This is not Japangate and due to derivatives it's infinitely worse and also is being handled badly.

        I am sorry to sound so pessimistic it must be a downer to post to me. I will not bore you and reassert my position but on the course we are headed disaster is near. It would take a major reversal of policy Monday to head this off and I know of no political leader (even Paul) who is close to a solution.

        If anybody is interested I will detail my solution but before you ask let it be known that it is bitter medicine and no politician will even think it.

        So I will just crawl off to my bunker for a morning coffee. Get to gold (GLD) and all other losses will be wiped out by the end of October or at the very least Xmas.

    • There is no such thing as "inflation protected T-Bills". There are TIPS, which are bills adjusted for CPI-U, but CPI-U trails inflation by about 7%.

      • 2 Replies to igorcarajo
      • I saw that. I read his book also and liked most of it except the TIPS part. I read his latest book where he acknowledges losing lots on these and now recommends the commodities that are hard assets like gold, oil, etc. I like his idea that the euro will never be the world currency since we see now they can never agree in an emergency. He predicts the Chinese RMB and the more I look at it the more he may be right....who knows since their market has collapsed also as well as the HK market.

 
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