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SPDR Gold Shares Message Board

  • rudeymvp rudeymvp Nov 10, 2008 5:37 PM Flag

    US DOLLAR ready to explode?? see chart!

    Gold is in trouble if this breakout carries!

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    • you might wanna rethink that theory, its possible we see a BREAKDOWN of the triangle, see story below

    • Technical analysis is such BS. The "symetrical triangle", is neither bullish nor bearish. It's actually a damped wave, suggesting that something (a step input) perturbed the market, which can *sometimes* be modeled as a damped spring-mass system. All this tells us is that 85.935 appears to be the new equilibrim value, until some other input comes along and perturbs the system in a new direction. That input can be bullish or bearish. Currency markets are probably a good lab for the response of a market to a stepped input, since they feature abrupt changes in interest rates. It's probably too much to ask, but are there any engineers on this board who remember spring-mass systems, LC circuits, and stepped inputs from school? It really is that simple, and sorry for all you would-be soothsayers out there, the previous pattern on the chart is not going to help you. Bullish triangle. Pulllleeeeze. I should go into the newsletter business. I could sling it better than these guys. I guess I have too many scruples for that though...

      • 2 Replies to istartedi
      • Technical Analysis is BS? LOL well im not here to play that game. All i can tell you is i trade 100% by the charts and i bat a .400 average. 40% of the time im right, out those trades 20% are HUGE winning trades. The other 60% of the time im wrong, about 20% of those trades are breakeven trades and the other 40% are trades with small losses. By the way, alot of people laugh when i tell them im right in 40% of my trades,,i just humbly say, "well,,what do they call a baseball player that bats .400? Answer: A HALL OF FAMER!"

        In my trading career i was taught at the very beginning to trade by the charts and follow the trend. I was never taught anything about funnymentals ops i mean fundamentals.

        I guess its kinda like nuture vs nature. I was taught to trade chart patterns from the very beginning.

        P.S. I really dont care which way the US DOLLAR breaksout, if it breaks out above the triangle i will go Long,,if it breaks out BELOW the traingle i will go short...doesnt matter to me, i just wanna catch a trend,,and since most trends get their start from breaking out of chart patterns,,it only makes sense to trade em. Alot of people are more worried about being right in their market predictions than making money.
        I dont make predictions when itrade,,i go with the breakout 100% of the time.

        IF the US DOLLAR does breakout to the topside of this triangle, i would expect Gold to break support and enter a major bear market to the next support level at 55 area. Alot of people will jump up and down and call me a hyporcit cuz i just made a market prediction with my last statement. Yes i did,,BUT i do not TRADE by market predictions. Let me explain the emotions of trading:

        Theres 2 sides to a trader,,just like the 2 sides of the brain. Theres the ANALYST who makes predictions and looks for trading opportunities, then theres THE TRADER. Now THE TRADER must be RULE ORIENTED,,a trading system. The ANALYST is the part of the trader that looks for trading breakouts,,make predictions on where they think a market is going to do etc etc. BUT heres the key and where people FAIL in trading...THE TRADER AND THE ANALYST MUST BE KEPT SEPERATE IN TRADING,,,because the ANALYST will try to proove itself correct! The ANALYST is WGO DRIVEN...he wants to be RIGHT! The ANALYST gets his self-worth from being right! On the other hand..the TRADER wants 1 thing...MONEY! It doesnt care which is rule system followed to the letter!

        If one cannot keep these 2 beasts seperate,,,they will buy Bear Stearns at 80 and hold until they finally take a loss at 5. All because the ANALYST said it was gonna go to 140 and wouldnt admit that he was wrong. Where as the trader simply sees Bear Stearns break support at 75 and goes short and rides it all the way down.

      • Your mistake is using natural science principles to assess a social science chart. Economics is social science in spite of decades of economists trying to convince themselves and us otherwise. However, I agree with you that the chart shown is unconvincing as bullish.

    • so either buy dzz, udn.

    • You are one nervous short.

      • 1 Reply to see_it_coming
      • naaahh im not nervous! Ive been short for about 3 weeks and my protective stop is at breakeven,,,so i have no risk in this market. I like those kinda trades,,,where even if the market doesnt go my way, it has gone far enough to move my stop to breakeven and i have no risk.

        If the UD DOLLAR breaksout to the upside from that symetrical traingle..i will go long the US DOLLAR and add to my short position in gold on a move to new lows!

        "Ya never know when the big ones comin."~~Glen Ring

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