The euro will fail. The Italians won't or can't implement their inadequate "austerity" plan. Deficit spending continues throughout Europe (and the US). The debts are unpayable. The German taxpayer is tired of supporting the unsustainable. Germany will soon look East again to the boundless potential of Russia for a partner rather than a an aging, culturally challenged Europe. Of course gold will benefit. So will the dollar in the short term since the US has political stability. However the dollar will probably lose an additional 40% of value by 2015. Short the euro, buy gold and temporarily hold dollars.
If Euro looks like its going to fail, people in troubled countries will buy gold hand over fist. Put yourself in their place. One day you have euros, next day new drachmas worth half as much. If I lived in Greece, Ireland or Portugal, I'd be loading up on gold now.
Flip side is that if euro fails, new German marks will skyrocket in value like Swiss franc. But it will take the Germans a while to figure it out so there, and it will eventually drive gold down. But in the meanwhile, there would be a great speculative bubble window to make money.