Some believe the govt is behind price manipulation to keep the price from moving UP.
Some believe the USD is destined to collapse because of ongoing debt payments over 80 Billion a month using fiat currency and there will be a flight to precious metals, foreign currencies or commodities.
Some believe paper Gold is a Ponzi scheme.
It is doubtful that the government is officially manipulating gold, but its policies certainly are helping the big banks to do so. My belief is that gold has had a great 12 year run, that some big investors are heavy on gold, and that with the markets recent jump that those investors are selling some gold and moving to equities (for now anyway).
The Japanese Yen is in worse shape that the US Dollar, and has not collapsed. I don't see a collapse but I see a continued decay.
Unless there is a Lehman moment with many banks defaulting, or unless a true black swan hits, then paper gold is fine, as it is easily tradeable with less commissions. But just like 2008/2009, don't assume gold is going to $2000 in an economic collapse. Use the easy trading of paper gold and get out in time (and don't be a pig). You can always enjoy the ride up with paper gold, sell it, then go out and buy physical, or guns, or food, or whatever you think you need.