Metals, oil, and, well, treasuries, the traditional inflation warnings, are down and have been down YTD. The only indicator that is up is the stock market and, well, real estate.
I am not sure what to make of this, but given that the CBs around the world are printing and banks are "not lending", it will stay that way ... until the banks (thank you so much dear banks) start lending again ... the day this happens, inflation will kick in as the CBs will be behind the curve with their tightening.
I think accumulating physical at this time and over the next year is probably a good idea. Governments around the world want to inflate their debt away, CBs are doing their best to help, and one day, the will succeed.
They have to, otherwise this whole experiment has failed...
You neglected to mention recent CPI formula revisions will intentionally produce lower inflation numbers not a true measure for apples to apples comparisions and trend lines. With political ramifications, this in turn affects tax and social security benefit indexations.