The main bullish factor is the BIG institutional bulls Paulson, Soros and many of similar ilk are out or cut holdings in half. Just too much group think sure thing talk for while. So I joined the shorts in feb and closed way before bottom.
Will those institutions jump back in to drive gold back? Not a bet I'd take, but have at it
Taper is a lock, golds definitely gonna take a hit in Sept. will I short? Probably no
I had the same thesis - gold will plummet on QE. However, the recent trend confirms that the market has already priced this in and more. Most shorts were playing on this scenario (admittedly, I was in this camp for a short while) - but as certainty over tapering came into clear view, the gold went up and not down. This basically invalidates that hypothesis - gold will not sell off on tapering. If anything, the opposite is occurring - they sold the rumor and now they have to buy the news! Some of the money flowing out of equities and bonds will find a home in precious metals.