Is near. As anyone who follows the physical market knows, bullion supplies are tight and large quantities of bullion are difficult to acquire. However if you are interested in buying small quantities, the sheople, who always buy high and sell low, are dumping, so its worth a trip to your local coin store. When I was there last, a bunch of Asians were buying large quantities of gold and silver, while the locals were cashing in grannies silver dollars and griping about food prices.
GLD has 2010 or 2011 levels of physical gold. That's still a LOT of gold. At its peak, it was the largest ETF in the WORLD. Bigger than SPY. That is big. Not sure of rank today, but it's still big. Throw in ETF on other exchanges. Australia was the first.
There is no physical shortage. Price doesn't lie. Gold never consumed, just swap owners. Plenty will want to lock profits or take tax losses.