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Senomyx Inc. Message Board

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  • beetlemania74 beetlemania74 Mar 11, 2011 10:53 PM Flag

    Just added at $ 6.54

    Good analysis. My two cents:

    <When the company gets to $45million in commercialized revenue a year, the company is at break even.>

    Well, not exactly. They've consistently brought in $3-4M per quarter in "research money", so if they can make $45M in commercialization revenue as you suggest, then they'll likely be turning a nice profit ($.40/share in annual earnings).

    <European approvals coming in the next couple months (could double commercialized revenue)>

    Do you mean double Nestle's royalties or overall commercialization revenue? Honestly, I don't think we'll see Nestle's savory in Europe bringing in $4M/year.

    <Thus, with a single breakthrough and current commericalization efforts, the idea this company could generate $400 million in earnings a year is very possible. Using a ocnservative p/e of 12 and assuming no more dilution (keeping it 38 million shares), you end up with a stock price of $120.00.>

    Yowsers! $400M would be great, but it's still a long way away. My hope is that the sucrose enhance that Firmenich will be starting up this year will generate some hefty revenue. And although the Pepsi agreement looks very promising, I sure hope we get news soon about a specific product that they're moving forward on.

    I think we could start to see some big numbers coming in about a year from now. Hopefully next year's guidance on commercialization revenue goes up to $15-20M, with 2013 at over $40M. Then we can reach your $400M number the next year...And if that did happen, the p/e would likely be closer to 25-30, so your share price could be $300. We can dream, can't we?

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