OCA is just a derivative of human bile acid. They could of just made an exact copy of natural human bile acid but you can't patent something that already exist naturally in the human body. So they make a derivative to make it look different/unique/synthetic/man made, etc. However, a copy of natural bile acid would of worked also. Also, other derivatives could be made to avoid ICPTs patents. The chemical structure is in Wikipedia and its not complex.
So we should not believe the Wall Street Journal article or the NIH and believe you. This stock is now priced for more than perfection so any potential bad news will kill the price. This is the first of more bad news to come. The FDA next decision will be the next catalyst to drop this stock price. Don't get me wrong, I hope this drug eventually comes to market to help those who need it but there are so many factors to consider going forward like:
1)When or if it gets FDA approval (I believe it will but not as soon as most think)
2)Competition from other drug companies that may come to market with their own drug.
3)Pricing of drug and how much will be covered by insurance companies.
4)Costs of producing the drug.
These are just a few things to take into consideration before buying into a company who's valuation not only doesn't make sense now but don't make sense for many years to come if ever.
I posted earlier today how irresponsible it was for CITI and BofA to come out with a $400 and $872 price target on this company today given the news that came out two days ago. I also did not see or read what time frame they gave for this price target to hit. Most give 6-12-18 month price targets but they gave nothing but a price.
I also would like to know why half of the patients left the trial before it ended. The results from the trial did not include them so what would the results have been if they stayed. These are the things that need to be addressed before paying up for this stock at these levels.