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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • joedamodio joedamodio Jan 3, 2012 2:58 PM Flag

    If letter to shareholders was so good ...

    then why is the stock down 5-plus percent and getting set to close at low of day??
    Will someone please explain bacause I don't understand it.

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    • Mighty O!!!

    • This laughable letter was crushed to pieces in under 10 minutes by the mighty Oracle of O!

    • Sometimes you just have to go against the herd. After reading today's letter from Amarin, I can't see anything that was not known when the stock was trading above $15. We still do not know precisely why the 15 plus parties who expressed an interest in Amarin appear to have walked. It may be that the asking price was seen as too high at the time. I suspect that number was around 4 to 6 times today's pps. It seems to me Amarin believes they can recruit the necessary personnel to execute on AMR101's potential. This is the risk the market sees devaluing the stock by 75%. I don't know if Amarin can execute something as ambitious as a global launch of what looks to be a huge product but it's better than lottery tickets at the current price.

    • It was not "good" for anyone with half a brain, it was hoorible. Please allow me to crush it to pieces:

      "Triglyceride reduction without statistically significant increase in bad cholesterol has not been demonstrated previously for any therapy in this class for treating patients with very high triglycerides."

      *It does not matter for these patients because they have an altered lipoprotein metabolism, also 25% of the patients on MARINE where already on statins and that has certainly skewd the LDL data anyway.

      "We believe AMR101 is well positioned to be an important part of the next generation in lipid management therapy"

      *This is no "next generation" therapy, it is a 30+ year old Japanese product.

      "Based upon feedback from the FDA, we believe no outcomes study will be required for FDA approval of the very-high triglyceride indication studied in the MARINE trial."

      *Why would the FDA approve AMRN-101 for very hihg trigs when the existing product (Lovaza) is over 30% more effective in the primary indication (reducing trigs)?
      Has anything like that happened before in the entire history of the FDA?

      "After conducting an extensive global search for manufactures that could produce AMR101, in mid-2011 we added two API suppliers, Chemport and Equateq, to our supply chain. We are working toward the announcement of a fourth API supplier. Each of these additional suppliers will be required to qualify their material and facilities with FDA prior to our use of API produced by them."

      *This is extremely difficult to get and will require HUGE investments for tier 2 and 3 producers like Chemport and Equateq, they can basically never make a profit in supplying Amarin.

      "Amarin is aggressively pursuing a strategy to enhance the proprietary position of AMR101 through a combination of intellectual property protection, regulatory exclusivity, manufacturing barriers to entry and trade secrets."

      *Amarin will not get patents of any value and there are no exclusive "trade secrets".
      Again, this is a 30 year + old Japanese product.

      • 3 Replies to omega_oracle
      • "In the United States, we believe that there are strong arguments for AMR101 to be awarded FDA five-year new chemical entity (NCE) marketing exclusivity."

        *That is higly unlikely and five years of exclusivity is worth nothing in the real world. Generic Lovaza will be on the market from 2015, basically making it impossible to sell AMR-101 at a profitable price.

        "The only other omega-3 based product approved by the FDA is Lovaza™; however, we believe the active moiety in Lovaza and the active moiety in AMR101 are different, which we believe is reflected in the decision to establish different molecular family names for icosapent ethyl (AMR101) and omega-3 acid ethyl esters (Lovaza)."

        *Just changing the name does not alter the fact that this is EPA ethyl ester, identical to what is used in Epadel.

        "In addition, we believe the market position of AMR101 may be further protected through a combination of long-term manufacturing agreements with qualified global suppliers and technically advanced product specifications for which key manufacturing methods and analytics are protected through trade secrets or potentially protected through manufacturing patent applications being pursued by our suppliers."

        *Nonsense, this is a 30 year + old Japanese product.

        "We received extensive and broadly positive feedback from clinicians, payors and large pharmaceutical companies regarding the competitive positioning of AMR101. In particular, our market research suggests that the profile of AMR101, due to the demonstrated ability to work effectively as an add-on to statin therapy, positions AMR101 to not only compete for currently treated patients but to potentially expand treatment to the many patients with elevated triglycerides who are not currently receiving therapy."

        *What does this even mean and what patients today already on statins are not receiving treatment for elevated triglycerides? Lovaza does not increase LDL in this group of patients who already are on statins!

        "With respect to the marketing and sale of AMR101, there are three potential paths that we are considering: partnership, acquisition and self-commercialization (with 3rd party support."

        *Big pharma is not interested in a product witn no pricing power, low margins and with no serious patent protection. And big pharma partnership is required to have a realistic chance against GSK.

        "If we do launch AMR101 on our own, we expect to begin hiring a sales force close to the time of AMR101 approval and would seek to initially target the top prescribing clinicians. We believe accomplishing this for the indication studied in the MARINE trial will require a sales force of approximately 250 to 300 representatives in the United States".

        *Reliant had 900 reps and could only get Lovaza (monopoly omega-3 drug) to sales of a few hundred million, it took GSK and their thousands of reps to make Lovaza a really huge drug.

        And now the well known Lovaza is already is on the market, supported by the massive GSK sales and marketing machine.

        *In short, there is nothing new OR realistic in this letter, only more meat for lawyers with regards to future legal action from mislead investors.

    • Very frustrating, Joe.

1.58+0.06(+3.95%)Jul 22 4:00 PMEDT

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