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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • Aug 10, 2012 2:45 PM Flag

    Wedbush - 8/10/12

    Came out with a report today indicating they think

    "Amarin will likely to be acquired between now and mid-October for their newly approved drug Vascepa (treatment of high triglycerides). We believe the current share price near $11-12 presents a favorable near-term risk/reward opportunity for investors"

    Also note the Life Sciences MAC Best Ideas Conference - NYC - Aug 14 and 15th.

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    • Yep. No doubt in my mind that AMRN will sell to the highest bidder in the near future. Unless the price isn't right, the other 2 options aren't worth pursuing for AMRN management due to the lack of a vast in-house infrastructure to quickly ramp and serve huge potential markets. But the price will be right, and AMRN management will be retained to run this division because they know what they are doing.

    • My best guess is that we will see a price in the area of the mid 20's with a very lucrative CVR attached. A CVR is a contingent value right which will trade as an independent security after the acquisition. This will still give shareholders a vested interest in the success of the drug even after it is acquired. The future value of a CVR will be based on certain milestones such as sales, additional approvals and expanded indications. I believe that the right CVR could yield an additional 10-15 dollars per share at a minimum. Also, I would like to clear something up. At no time did I ever compare Vascepa the drug, to DNDN's drug or HGSI's drug or any other failure. That is an apples to oranges comparison. I was simply pointing out the failures of small biotechs who try to market their drugs on their own. Most people thought that Provenge was going to be a blockbuster. Most people thought that Benlysta was going to be a blockbuster. Most people think that Vascepa will be a blockbuster. I too think that Vascepa will be a huge blockbuster. It just has to be in the right hands, a.k.a. big pharma.

      P.S. Hindsight is 20/20 and one person in particular loves to beat his own chest about how he said Provenge was going to be a dud from day one. In the right hands I think the outcome would have been very different. Also, it was revealed that HGSI refused a $35 dollar offer from AMGN soon after Benlysta was approved. They just sold out at 14 after a miserable failure of their own doing. Let's all hope AMRN does not make the same mistake. You must strike when the iron is hot!!

    • im 50/50 would not suprise me but it would not suprise me if they partnered up

    • Amarin presenting on Tuesday, August 14th at 3:05pm.

    • No surprise if that occurs.
      Lets hope its a reality.
      I would like to see share price reach 16.00+ before any buyout so this way we can get 16.00 plus an 80% premium buyout price at 28.80 a share
      at the minimum'

      • 2 Replies to sexyladyfitness
      • SLF,
        I see a multiple bid scenario. There could be an initial low-$20s bid, followed by several other higher offers.

        If I'm BP, I'm runing numerous analysis around the value of each individual patent and combinations of approved patents with value assigned to each potential outcome. As each patent is issued, risk is removed and value (expected future cash flow) should increase. Same goes for the Anchor indication. At some point soon, these bids will be made public either by management or hostile bidder. Then it's up to the board/management/stockholders to decide what to do.

      • todhale Aug 10, 2012 3:02 PM Flag

        The more I hear about patent progress, the more I read into the JELIS study and the combo, amrn would be a steal at anything under the low 30's at this point.

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