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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • mtdsus mtdsus Aug 19, 2012 6:40 PM Flag

    Pfizer is likely to bid for Amarin in next 90 days.

    Here is my guess-based on their interest in 2011.
    Cholestrol drug makers did make a bid-or enquire about buying Amarin in April,2011-after Marine trial 3 results. But the offer was TOO LOW.
    Sun Times reported that Amarin hired Lazard Ltd. in April.
    Bloomberg article on 6/10/2011 confirmed that CEO-saying -there are more buyers than our 17 employees. Offer of 15$/share means-not interested---offer of 30,40--means SURE--we are ready to sit down and talk seriously.
    In April 2011--Pfizer wouldn't pay 15$/share--when Amarin had NO patents.
    Now the situation is different:
    1) Amarin will have 2 patents by Sept.14th and perhaps 4 more by end of Oct.
    2) Anchor 3 results for 200-500mg population are also great.This expands market size from 1.5 billion$ to over 5 billion$.
    3) Pfizer has the best chance of achieving the 5 billion$ sales in 2017 or 2018 with Reduce-IT study. They did it with Lipitor.
    So here is my take:
    You will hear about a bid by Pfizer at 21$/share in next 90 days--which will be moved to 27$/share in bidding process.The bid will be finalized by Dec.15th,2012.
    If Amarin hires 200 sales persons--Pfizer will train them and absorb them easily. As far as manufacturing--they will trust Amarin for having chosen quality suppliers. Pfizer will help in labeling and marketing of the product.
    Please note: Advertisement is very important and it can be very expensive if not done properly. Salesmen can make the visits--but consumers request the product from their doctor as I did with Lipitor. Many doctors were happy with ZOCOR--but I had to convince them to look at Lipitor--which is BETTER. This process of education takes 2-3 years--but Pfizer can do it in 1 year.
    So extra 1 billion$ sales in 2014--means lot to profitability--therefore Amarin's value.Pfizer Knows this.
    Amarin knows it also.
    Merck is not as good as Pfizer in Cholestrol drug marketing.
    Astra Zeneca is great with CRESTOR--but they have too many EXECUTION CHALLENGES with ARDEA and AMYLIN and Amgen in next 6 months.
    I am giving Strong Buy--based on 9 top analysts who know this company better than anyone else. Their targets range from 21.50 to 28$/share.
    LeCroy of MKM with 21.50$ target is suggesting his clients to buy Sept.13 Calls. WHY? Tell me.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Other things remaining same ( which probably are not) $15 offer in April may be worth $12 now (Due to dilution & additional offering of convertible notes in Jan 2012)
      Just another factor to be considered.
      We will still see new 52 week high by December

    • Over the last 5 years PFE has cut their own sales force dramatically and now relies on Contract Sales ORganizaitons to augment its slimmed down sales force profile when needed. I would not looks for any hiring of sales reps by Amarin or PFE as I do not think that would be the sales force approach in this day and age of outsourcing to keep overhead costs low.

    • It was a collar trade that was put on a few weeks ago . It was not just buy Sept $13 strike only . See barons for complete trade info , however time value has been lost and intrinsic .( MKM )
      Regards .
      Ps . Deal will be $25 / or north of depending on patents and when deal is struck .
      Imo only .

    • "Bloomberg article on 6/10/2011 confirmed that CEO-saying -there are more buyers than our 17 employees."

      He said "I have more companies interested in this asset than employees".

      Not "buyers", big legal difference and it is also a totally meaningless statement. When a CEO speaks like this you should be extemely concerned.

    • Not if they don't get NCE!

    • Sept 13 calls are way too pricey, this has all the elements of a pump and dump.

    • Mtd

      Interesting post
      I would just add the following .
      It won't take a year for Doc's to prescribe Vascepa because
      1) it's safe ...no side effects
      2) it's seen as a " natural product "
      3) because of the Accord trial and the Aim-high trial ...many MD's appear less enthusiastic with prescribing Fibrates or Niacin.......for good reason ....ie these drugs move your numbers but don't reduce " events " in out come trials.

      Anyone who is taking Niacin , Fibrates or Lovaza will want to try Vascepa as an alternative.
      Anyone on low dose statins is likely to want to try Vascapa combined with some simple life style and diet changes ...to see if they can get their lipid profile into target range.

      Vascapa is likely to " fly off the shelves " as JL has stated....in which case Amarin may not be in any hurry to " make a deal"....which will likely disappoint many on this board.

      Cost wise for the patient ...generic Lipitor and Vascapa at Tier 2 pricing will be hard to beat .

      Marketing wise tho ...selling Vascepa may be one of the easiest jobs ever handed to a drug rep.
      Who wouldn't want a safe ,FDA approved , Rx quality , natural product ...no side effects ...that works ....to reduce ones chances of a heart attack.

      Akanz

      • 3 Replies to akanz2
      • You may be right--but I remember my experience with Lipitor when it was newly introduced and I read it in Wall Street Journal.
        My drug provider Caremark called me to suggest that they had talked to my doctor and changed the prescription to Provochol. I was mad.
        I called my doctor--he said--Caremark put pressure on me--and there is NO data on its superiority(Reduce-IT type study). Any how he agreed to redo and prescribe Lipitor--which realy reduced my Cholestrols--but NOT trigylcerides.
        Hope that Anchor trial data leads to FDA approval for 200-500 mg Trigl.group--so I can take Vascepa. Reduce-It study would be great--but I have read Epadel 1999-2005 study results--I AM CONVINCED that REDUCE-IT will get better results for WESTERN DIET. Even with Japanese diet(Fish mostly as beef is expensive),the results were significantly better.

      • plusepa@rocketmail.com plusepa Aug 19, 2012 9:50 PM Flag

        Why on earth would a Medical Professional believe it is fine for you to take a daily dose of 4gms of EPA called Vascepa but not 4gms of EPA called anything else?

        It is not as if the EPA in PlusEPA is any different than the EPA in vascepa. Do you know what EPA is? You know that a capsule with 1gm of EPA is the same as 2 capsules with .5gm of EPA, right? You see that, don't you?

        You say vascepa is a safe ,FDA approved , Rx quality , natural product ...no side effects ...that works ....to reduce ones chances of a heart attack. And guess what? PlusEPA has all those same qualities. It is safe, Rx quality, natural product....no side effects....that works....to reduce ones chances of a heart attack. The FDA approved Amarin to sell pure EPA with certain medical claims. That does not mean that pure EPA made by Amarin is magical. EPA is the same as EPA.

      • Mtd

        A few other pts having reread your post .

        Vascapa is likely to go " off label " faster then any drug in history ( or at least that I know of )
        As a Cardiologist has said to me " it's safe , won't hurt you , may help you ...yes I will prescribe it to you ".
        Now I normally have TG,s around 200 ( unless I take PLUSEPA which I like or Niacin which I hate )....I'm not the over TG 500 indication that Vascapa is approved for.

        Even my primary care Doc has said he will prescribe me Vascapa if for no other reason then to stop me taking PLUSEPA at 4 gm doses.
        There are other reasons he will prescribe Vascepa ...he just gets agitated when I threaten to take 4gms of an OTC product.

        You said you were on Lipitor ....care to share what dose and what other cholesterol or TG lowering drugs you take ....I 'd be interested

        By the way ...I filed my application for Vascepa the day it was FDA approved ...wanted to be patient #1 ( outside of the Reduce it trial )

        By the way ....you refered to the Japanese Jellis trial 2 gms of Epadel a day to a trial population about 68% post menopausal Japanese Women
        The Reduce it trial is a lot more vigorous ...4 gm daily dose to patients who are either diabetic or had 50% stenois of 2 coronary arteries ...it's also double blinded as opposed to open labelled .

        I have another blood test coming up in a week also ....now 4 mths on Crestor and PLUSEPA ( substitute for Vascepa ) plus a vegan/ salmon / soy diet

        I'll post the results
        Akanz

 
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