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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

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  • mtdsus mtdsus Aug 30, 2012 10:00 AM Flag

    Pfizer,Astra Zeneca interested in Marketing Vascepa

    See ,"Open Letter to Joe Zakrzewski,CEO,Amarin".
    Lipitor was launched in 1997 with Co-marketing agreement between Warner Lambert and Pfizer (at that time in 1996,Lipitor was a highly speculative product(Merck research showed it was ME TOO product).So if they had tried--deal could not be acceptable to WL.
    But after 2 years of data--1997-98,American Home Products tried to grab WL in 1999.At that time Pfizer jumped in and bidding war followed--Pfizer ended paying 90 billion$.
    In 1996,Pfizer management could not justify 30 bil.$ as they had no data--just "Hope".
    Same thing is true for Amarin. On June 10,2011 ,Joe Zakrzewski told Bloomberg,
    "If the offer is 15$ -not interested,but if 30,40,100$,I am all ears."
    How can anyone offer 40$ /share now--with no sales data?
    Anchor 3 will be approved by Aug.2013--and this group 200mg-500mg provides BIG opportunity.Reduce-It study will be well underway by the end of 2013.
    So 40$-60$ /share offer in 2014 is possible--with Sales data--like Lipitor in 1999 after 2 years of data. For Liptor,it was proved that Lowering Cholestrols reduces Heart attacks by many studies based on Zocor etc.So Lipitor--which was TURBO-Statin--was likely to reduce cardiac events more. Actually a study was done for Lipitor.
    FDA allows a co. to CLAIM/ADVERTISE--Lipitor reduces Heart attacks.
    After Reduce-IT study--FDA will allow to Advertise--Vascepa saves lives from Cardiac events.But you will have to wait till 2015 or 2016 when the results start coming in.JELIS study done in Japan for Epadel is NOT acceptable in USA for FDA.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • That future potential is why PFE and others will want to buy at $30 as they feel it will be worth $60 in 2016 and can afford to take the risk. Can AMRN management afford that risk as much as the big Pharmas? I would think not but we will see within 1-2 months

      • 1 Reply to ktsven
      • Amarin wants more than 30$/share--but Pfizer is perhaps not sure about the high valuation.
        The price target range by 8 analyst is 21.50 to 28$/share.
        That is why I think Marketing Partnership is the best option now--especially in markets outside USA.
        I have stated before--WL (Warner Lambert)and Pfizer agreed to marketing deal in 1996.It was 1999 that bidding started--with 2 years sales data.Wyeth(Amer.Home Prod.) bid first in 1999.
        Proper valuation -fair to all,is only possible with at least 18 months data.They can have 2-3 years marketing deal in the meantime.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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