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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

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  • mtdsus mtdsus Aug 31, 2012 12:22 PM Flag

    Price without Sales data is 22-28$/share in 2012. Price w.Sales data in 2014 likely to be over 35-60$/share.

    Streetinsider gives you ratings and price targets for all the analysts based on the data and projections and DCF analysis-give them 21.50 to 28$/share targets.
    35-60$/share is based on FDA approval for 200-500mg trigl. population in July-Aug.2013,initial data of Sales for Vascepa-wide range on how fast Vascepa grows.
    60$/share is based on Lipitor Sales in 1997-98 similarity and Reduce-IT trials progress.
    Since we won't have full results until 2015 or 2016-- advertising claims will be monitored by FDA in USA.
    Pfizer as well as Astra Zeneca are top marketers--Pfizer took Lipitor to 10 bil.$ sales and AZN took Crestor to 6 bil.$ sales/year.
    Both PFE and AZN have wide gap--Pfizer now,AZN in 2016 with patents expiring.Example: Lipitor Generic is offered by WEGMAN's for FREE. Yes FREE-- We bought it.
    So PFE is hurting. The question is price they would pay now vs.pay after they see Sales data?

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    • Without info on another TG drug --- a $1B a year blockbuster --- most giants would rather do the "wait and see" like GSK did w/ HGSI...

      But with LOVAZA as a comparably molecule, with VASCEPA coming in 2 ready to go regimens within 1 year of each other, and the third, REDUCE IT within 5-6 years, just when MARINE AND ANCHOR would fully penetrate market in the TG sector.... I doubt PFE, AZN, MERCK, GSK, etc. would want to play the "let's wait and see" game... because all of them know all it takes is just ONE of them, half a dozen or so of the biggest pharmas to make a deal and all the others would be out in the cold, unless they produce another molecule like VASCEPA in the next 2-4 years, which is doubtful...

      Of course, these are just OUR VIEWS; the big guys may have an entirely different take on the situation...

 
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