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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • bigpharmaretired bigpharmaretired Sep 28, 2012 3:28 PM Flag

    FACTS THAT POINT TO BUY OUT; WHAT WE KNOW

    In most cases it has been correctly stated that biotech companies that have blockbuster drugs are usually bought out before the approval of the drug: ie, Pharmacett bought for 11 billion by Gilead while their blockbuster Hep C drug was still in Stage II clinical trials, absoulutely amazing. So why should we be optamistic about Amarin being bought out now, two months after approval? As Sergeant Friday use to say, JUST THE FACTS: 1. Tiny company, no other products in pipeline. 2. CEO has said that a "partnership not favored due to loss of control 3. has stated no decision on sales marketing will be made until sometime in mid-to-late fall. This is a very short time frame for a 1st quarter launch which is the CEO's stated goal 4. MOST IMPORTANTLY: APPROVAL OF KEY PATENTS NECESSARY TO DETERMINE BUYOUT VALUE IS JUST NOW BECOMING A REALITY, TWO MONTHS AFTER FDA APPROVAL OF VESCEPA. Vescepa, being a fish oil, has had a drug specific problem with patents which made it imposible to make a fair buyout offer. Interested companies simple could not make an offer until these patents are issued and their legal depts take a look at the wording. 4. trial with the worlds most highly prescribed statin are beginning, which indicates strong portfolio appeal for a big pharma CV company. 5. Amarin does not have to market Vescepa itself to prove to big pharma there is a billion dollar market out there. Lovasa has already proven the size of the trig market. 6. At this stage Amarin is still waiting on final wording on patents and NCE why not wait until all the ducks are lined up before excepting the best offer. 6. The Quiet period: hard to believe that's all about NCE, common sence says they are in some form of negociations. In the big picture NCE is just not that important in the overall value of Vescepa, given a strong patent portfolio, which all the experts are now saying Amarin has accomplished. NOW: WHEN WILL THE BUYOUT BE? Well, with a stated launch of 1st qt. 2013, one would have to decide the deal must get done sometime in Oct. otherwise it's a pretty good bet Amarin will attempt somekind of a launch themselves. If that were the case then the next logical buyout time would be shortly after the NDA has been approved on the Anchor trials, sometime after 1st qt., 2013. Well that's my best guess on the outcomes. Serious investors, post your opinions here:

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • Pfizer US, GSK Europe, combo of others ROW

      Right to sell could be bought by more than one BP, right?

      Everyone needs to remember Joe launched Lovaza/Omacor, he can launch this Q 1 2013 while deal is finalized. This IMO is a nonissue.

      I like your Pharmacett example...with Anchor Amarins market is larger than theHep C market, Hep C market has/will have multiple competitors. $11 Billion Phase 2, most underestimate what Amarin's gonna get for BO.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to williams4076
      • Williams,
        I know some of us individual investors are deemed short sided by wanting this buyout (me included), but as you point out, AMRN's market is bigger than most of us are grasping, which is why I can't fathom GSK would allow it to let it slip away from them. Not only could Vascepa replace their $$B Lovaza market being lost to generics, it would branch out in to another HUGE market after the sNDA AND world wide as you also pointed out. With the ground already broken for the fish oil scripts, this could be their version of the IPhone - new, improved, better for you, money making, next generation, gotta have it, pill. They would have to be crazy to let AMRN get away or be bought out by someone else.

    • I agree with your post, and would add look at the number of full time employees list on Yahoo as 31, which may not be an exact number, however even doubled would be 62. A 1st quarter launch, would entail a broad effort, as this approved product is ready for launch, time is money. Vascepa meets an unmet medical need and has a bright future when looking at possibilities of use as an adjunct to statin therapy.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Bigpharma .....just wanted to bump your post because it's depressing to see how many manipulators ( primarily bashers ) who have descended onto the board recently.

      Your post was well written ( may I suggest paragraphs ) and informative .
      I may disagree with your conclusions ( I don 't think they are selling any time soon ) however I do enjoy reading your posts .

      Akanz

      Sentiment: Buy

    • BO is happening, most probably this weekend, definitly in Oct 2012, and most defintly before the election. AMRN, is done as far as packaging "AMRN' for a BO, its a matter of having NCE issued (which it will be) and getting normal legality issues as far as patents and other business matters. Sale price will be around $35, no less ...This is my opinion based on what and how much I know, I am, though confident that AMRN will not go at it alone, so everyone can put that issue to rest, I would advice , every investor to hold or buy more , and in the end please , do your own DD and make uo your own decsion...Thank You

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • BO is happening, most probably this weekend, definitly in Oct 2012, and most defintly before the election. AMRN, is done as far as packaging "AMRN' for a BO, its a matter of having NCE issued (which it will be) and getting normal legality issues as far as patents and other business matters. Sale price will be around $35, no less ...This is my opinion based on what and how much I know, I am, though confident that AMRN will not go at it alone, so everyone can put that issue to rest, I would advice , every investor to hold or buy more , and in the end please , do your own DD and make uo your own decsion...Thank You

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • By the way--- Lazard is their finacial advisor.
      At some point--someone is going to leak this information in Oct. to the media.
      Remember Amylin saga-- every week there was a story on bids received.They were given in ranges by "Loose lips" like 26-28;then 28-32 and then final bid of 31$--but with 2 parties-BMY in USA and AZN in Rest of World.
      Same thing happened to Pharmacett and Inhibitex.
      I had shares of all these 3 co.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Common Sense makes Sense: that Quiet period is to keep secret discussions-without a lawsuit later-by some one saying-you did not tell the whole truth.
      By the way--if serious discussions start--then price haggling can go on--but eventually marriage is inevitable.
      As far as launch is concerned-USA launch will be on schedule-but international launch could be delayed.
      I think Pfizer is one partner--they are fast on the feet.GSK may be the other one.They may haggle,but also can launch quickly.
      Same thing can be said for Merck.
      Astra Zeneca will probably be slow.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • With the holiday season coming soon, it would be impossible for amrn to launch Q12013 . It takes some time to hire a contract sale force, train them and stock the inventory channel. I just had the experience of a recent BO with Amylin. The mgt didn't want to sell out and they were ready to launch so 1 month after approval they had some inventory stocked at pharmacies across the nation. Not everywhere, there were plenty of hits and misses, some have Bydureon some didn't. But it was proof the company was serious . On the CC call Bradbury was clear on the training and coming up to speed of the CSO.
      It looks to me, JZ is really hinting at a BO by all his words so far and activities or lack of it.

    • Thanks fer the inputt. It soundz lik you are ane bioteche profesional and posssible a formur execetive ine the feild.

    • I'm a short term investor. I've held this position longer than I've held any other in quite some time. (Buyer since Mid August) Usually I swing trade and these dips and runs would have been nice to capitalize on, except that I would have to exit my position at some point and that would contradict my reasoning for holding on to this stock. I'm also new to the message boards. For anyone wanting to buy AMRN or needing to know any pertinent info, it is quite easy to find on this board once you find the right posters to follow. Most of the arguments have been rehashed, reshaped and rewritten many times.

      The company has a great product. Management is excellent. Forward statements have been followed through with and everything is in line with what the company has told its investors. Shorting in this space is an amateur's trade at least until more information is known. Such as NCE, patents, financing, etc.

      Patience is all that is needed for the serious investor. The investor will get their price, its just a matter of when. Personally, I'm trading up to NCE and five trading days beyond that. Then I'll take into consideration the price movement, volume and current news relating to the stock and make a decision whether or not to hold or exit my position. I have a price figure in mind as a minimum threshold so long as all my reasoning stays valid and intact.

      Pigs get fat, Hogs get slaughtered. Thanks for allowing me to share my thoughts and GL.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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