Amarin Corporation plc Message Board
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Joe Z's Cardinal Sin: Why AMRN stock price is languishing
Say what you want about the competence of AMRN management - and I do think they are generally quite competent - but corporate communication is often a VITAL component of how investors view a company and treat its stock price. As Bill Gates (and later Steve Jobs) demonstrated, it is ALWAYS better to under-promise and over-deliver than vice-versa. Investors love "upside surprises".
I believe this is the one area that Joe Z. earns a really poor grade. He has been talking up the company's prospects for a buyout for a long time - well pre-dating the latest blurb in August about the "exciting 60-90 days" as well as explicitly re-stating his preference/desire for a buyout and setting up negative expectations of a partnering deal. While the efficacy of Vescepa has met or exceeded expectations, management is (unintentionally) undercutting the confidence of investors - and therefore the current stock price - by committing the worst "sin" - i.e., over-promising and under-delivering.
Having said all that, I still recall Peter Lynch's sage advice - invest in a company that monkeys could run because at some point that might be how management fares. (Excuse the inexact paraphrasing.) Lynch's point was investors should be buying the "story" or the company fundamentals - and they should ideally be so solid, the company will prosper even if management is less than stellar.
I agree with others that Vescepa is, clearly, a "best-in-class" drug with true blockbuster potential. While we can argue about whether or not the drug can "sell itself", in the end it is such an enticing product that prescribing physicians and patients will "find" it, use it, and propel it to blockbuster sales. So, I remain "bullish but sober" on the company, wishing mainly that Joe Z. would quit telegraphing and hyping his plans for the company in ways that, to date, have clearly led to a loss of credibility and impatience on the part of many investors.-
Joe has seen what happened to Reliant and his masters(Venture capital co.) want to sell and Cash out like Reliant Founder/Chairman/CEO was eager to do in 2007. These people start a co.,but want to cash out.
Now to Peter Lynch-who I know well since 80's.
.He looks at fundamentals-- Product & People.
1)Vascepa is a much better product than Lovaza--Reduce-IT study will prove its effectiveness for reducing cardiac events.
2) Paul Huff is a proven Marketing Executive with LOVAZA and NIASPAN.
Today is Steve Jobs -first anniversary. He did not worry about stock price month by month.However he worried about Apple's new products every day. He hired good people to make sure his VISION was translated effectively and quickly.--Product?People.Sentiment: Buy
- 1 Reply to mtdsus
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Seriously, Joe Z. Is no Steve Jobs! The latter knew the value of providing surprises to the upside. Joe Z. Is good at rattling the cages. And Peter Lynch emphasized products and corporate culture, along with investors doing their own due diligence. AMRN's corporate culture, at least in terms of corporate communications, needs work.
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I have thought a lot about this issue and have been with Amarin from almost the begining and I've decided that I prefer competent intelligent Management (Joe Z) to a good talker. Yes he is NOT a good communicator and sometimes (often) says things without thinking of the "short term" impact on share prices... but to me honestly this is not that important. Great leaders often do communicate well also, but you know as well as I that many brilliant innovators and scientists for example are lousy communicators and yet do great things.
Joe Z knows what he's doing... and has done it well (behind the scenes) in the areas that count. I agree that taking a public speaking class and have better speech handlers would help. But, that's fluff not substance and not worth paying much attention to (if you are long on this stock and believe in the fundamentals and the competence of management ....as I do).Sentiment: Strong Buy
- 2 Replies to jrsautr
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AS you mentioned, Joe Z is very smart...that he is, he is playing with our money ,increasing/decreaing stock prices as he wish..I wish we were all that smart.
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Well said and I am in complete agreement. As the title of the original thread states/implies, I was only offering a perspective on why the stock price has been range-bound and underperforming the general biotech market for the past few months.
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You have no clue what's going on behind the sins. It's easy to be an armchair QB with no skin in the game.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
- 1 Reply to ski8688
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You are either ignorant or idiotic, take your pick. I'm long the stock and have a substantial holding - which anyone who has followed the board knows.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Agree! And well said.
Now that most investors are in for the BO and anything that slightly derails from this scenario would be disastrous. I wish they would have never mentioned the "exciting 60-90 day" period, it just causes a lot of anxiety and impatience as we are approaching this period,- 1 Reply to mkent253
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NCE was the wild card. I believe he said 60-90 only because he was uncetain about when it would be determined. It will soon be 90 days. I dont think Joe and his team have been sitting doing nothing for since July 26th. Something is going on and we will soon hear about it which may or may not be great in the short term. Long term no doubt this wiill make many retail investors very rich.
Sentiment: Hold
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Bitotech
There is lots of truth to what you say. Another thing that bothers me is the board and the mgmt is in bed together--they keep awarding massive amounts of cheap stock options to each other. That is why Joe and the team have a never ending supply of stocks to sell!- 1 Reply to sarathsathkumara
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Sarath, there are plenty of public companies like that and not just small like amarin. Look at HP where the CEO is also the COB. How in the hell does a guy like that get fired . They don't. It takes a sexual scandal to get rid of Hurd who is nothing but a cost cutter who cut HP R&D to the bones which forced HP to buy its R&D by acquiring other little start ups .
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Too early to judge , tet's see first how the story is going to end , this drama still playing and if he will deliver on his words , then we may have a new super star .
Sentiment: Strong Buy
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Just wanted to use the "identity" that I've always exclusively used on this board. So, the original post of this thread was by me.
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