With shares of Amarin Corporation (NASDAQ: AMRN) down over 20 percent in the past few months investors may be thinking the market has missed the fact that the FDA approved the company's Vascepa for very high triglycerides in July. But the truth is - it didn't. The ever-allusive NCE status has been the culprit for the recent weakness. It could make our break the value of the company for shareholders.
For the past two months the FDA has delayed including Vascepa in the monthly Orange Book, saying it has not yet made a determination with respect to regulatory exclusivity. Now the next Orange Book is upon us, expected around October 12.
NCE status has major implications. Amarin is clearly an attractive takeover target for major pharmaceutical companies like AstraZeneca, Bristol, Sanofi, Merck, Lilly and Roche. However, potential acquirers are on the sidelines until an NCE decision is made.
Today, Canaccord Genuity analyst Ritu Baral commented on takeover potential. Baral sees the enterprise value of Amarin's Vascepa worth as much as $78.26 per if the drug has patent protection through 2030. Because of Irish takeover laws, Baral said potential suitors are "likely to be very secretive and circumspect." The firm has a Buy rating and price target of $26 on AMRN.
Shares of Amarin are up 2.2 percent Friday to $12.42.
Link: Google Streetinsider Canaccord Amarin, select NEWS
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Actually this is the 2nd analyst to put the value this high but the first to assign a dollar number. Aegis guy had $10B revenue in the best years. Which puts it $80 with 2030 patent (which they have allowances on). Shorts are bio tches. Ha.
That Aegis guy is Ragharum Selvaraju of Aegis and he's been spot on on many companies and has great things to say about Amarin:
"RS: The context is that the company wants the drug on the market as soon as possible. I have talked to a lot of cardiologists who have indicated their full intent to prescribe the drug off-label (for high triglyceride levels that are lower than 500 mg/dL). If they prescribe the drug off-label it's not going to be reimbursed, but this is not a drug that costs $50,000 per year ($50K). It will cost $3K/year maximum. Off-label prescriptions normally carry a lot of risk because physicians don't want to be sued for malpractice. But in a case like this, where the drug has such a good safety profile, cardiologists are willing to prescribe it because there is no downside risk. They are not afraid someone will be poisoned by the therapy. Amarin has a PDUFA (Prescription Drug User Fee Act) date for AMR101 on July 26, 2012. I fully expect that we will see drug approval on that date........In my view, Amarin, Ironwood and Medivation all have legitimate blockbuster opportunities. Amarin's AMR101 could be the biggest. I think sales could be somewhere in the $6–10B range at peak. If you look at statins, they provide a very useful comparison. Lipitor (atorvastatin calcium) was a $12B drug at peak. Medivation's enzalutamide could be a $4–6B drug if the company can penetrate the hormone-sensitive patient population successfully. And Ironwood's linaclotide could generate $2–2.5B in peak sales. They are all legitimate investment opportunities."
The full article is a great read. Google: Amarin "life sciences report" Selvaraju
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I giggle every time I read Kala's posts the last 2 or so weeks.
There seems to be a small group determined to give her "thumbs down" regardless what she posts; and Kala almost never posts personal opinions like most of us do hourly or daily --- except when she engages in dialogues with other posters on broad subject matters --- and yet, these days she receives more negative ratings than positive!
That group --- or it could be just 1 or two individuals with multiple IDs --- must hate you, Kala, for something.... they seem to follow you, seemingly en mass, on any thing you post, just so they could rate your almost entirely PR, info postings...
Anyway, I hope such 5th grade juvenile activities don't stop you from posting the basic financial and scientific review postings you've been doing all these months in AMRN's Marisa Mayer's new Yahooliganland...
I have also noticed. You are getting the same treatment, btw. Try to post about this stock being an overbought POS or something along those lines and you will get lots of thumbs-up from the bullshוtters.
Thanks! Doesn't bother me at all. They probably think they can erase a post with enough thumbs down. I'll occasionally slam a basher. Use to do it more often but it's pointless. I prefer to post links/quotes etc that a reader can follow, look-up and make up their own mind. The StreetInsider post re: Canaccord got picked up by the wires. Easy find. Hopefully, someone will put up more detail from the Canaccord report itself. Can't wait to read it in full detail.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Vertex --with great Hep.C drug--brought in Abbott top executive to run the co.
Vertex faces competition from GILD--who bought a new drug(not approved yet) that cures 90%--vs,Vertex drug that cures 75-80%.
In my investing--I pay attention to:
Nothing like putting pressure on the importance of NCE.
Some have been denying it while others have been swearing to it.
NCE and size both matter even if you pretend they dont LOL