Has any one seen this yet? If it is on the board already, sorry!
A note released today Ritu Baral places an entp value of $78 on Vacepa provided it receives 30-year patent protection and a big pharma (if acquired) will have to add minimum SG&A expenses.
Her target price of $26 is based on Vascepa being licensed and collecting 28% royalties.
Ritu Baral has about 6 years experience as a biotech analyst and currently covers around 18 companies. I do not have the time now to check her track record.
Cannacord Genuity has made the most profit for its investors since it initiated coverage of Amarin when it was around $3.00. The more time passes, the higher the enterprise value of Amarin will be.
Amarin is the model company for "change". Just go back and look at its history. Now that it has a gem in its hand it will wait for the best suitor.
Do not forget that a Japanese company has already proved that high percentage of EPA in fish oil does reduce cardiovascular events such as heart attacks etc.
So it is a matter of time for the longs to reap the benefits of their investments.
In the meantime if NCE is not granted in mid-November be prepared to add more if pps drops below $10.35. Amarin is already a winner since FDA did approve the first indication and it has been granted patents that extends up to 2030. Patience is warranted here.
If you assume:
1) Good results from Reduce-IT study-- 80$/share is possible in 2015 or 2017.Crestor results for Jupiter trials were published/sent to FDA in 2009. Sales jumped from 4.5 bil.$ in 2009 to 6.5 bil.$ in 2011.
2) Anchor population -200-500mg.trigl.population approved by FDA in Aug.2013-- adds 2-3 bil.$ sales in 2015 to 500mg.population --Vascepa sales go from 1.5 bil.$ in 2014 to 4 bil.$ in 2015.
If you look at Warner Lambert without Lipitor in 2006 to 2009 with Lipitor --that is what could happen to Amarin's share price.