PFIZER top management NOT quick to see Big opportunities
Many think that Pfizer is a great marketing co. I agree with that.
But if you look at Lipitor (Warner Lambert ) story, WL approached Pfizer in 1996 for marketing Lipitor. Pfizer agreed and Lipitor was launched in 1997.The results were so great with marketshare gains that WL stock shot up from 45$/share in first qtr.2006 to 152$/share at the end of 4th qtr.1997.
Even then Pfizer did not see the need to bid or buy WL.
It was in 1999,when behind the scenes,secretively--Amer.Home Products (Wyeth now) made a BINDING DEAL with WL to buy the whole co.
Pfizer top management WOKE UP and bid 82 billion$ for WL
AHP and Pfizer lawyers fought--finally Pfizer paid 1.8 billion$ for Breakup fees to AHP and 90 billion$ to WL shareholders.
WILL PFIZER top management be dumb again-- not to pay 30$/share for Amarin now ?
But pay 80$/share in 2015 when Astra Zeneca or someone else closes a binding deal secretively.
I arrive at 80$/share-- with 2 assumptions.
1) FDA approval for 200-500mg Trigyl.population in Aug.2013
2) Favorable Early results for Reduce-It study---like Jupiter study did to Crestor Sales from 2009-2011.
At $80, that is 6X today's price or $12bn market cap!
I would discount "reduce it" potential by 90% (it is 8 years away and there is no guarantee that the trial will succeed or they will get the FDA approval or what other developments will happen in the mkt by then)
I would discount the Anchor potential by 50% (it is 2 years away and AMRN still has to sort out patents, distribution/mktg etc.)
Then I will come up with a price what an acquirer will pay for AMRN today. Of course I will take $1bn from Marine included today even though it will take AMRN 2-3 years to reach that target.
It will be hard for any acquirer to pay such a high price for a company the market is valuing today at $12.
It happens all the time in the corporate world. Taking the first move and pay a top price for a company is always a risk for a corporate executive. But once some one establishes the price it is is easy to top it with the board/investors.
However, hostile takeovers are the rarest in the pharma industry as it tends to be collegial.
Readers--Please note that I have gotten this information from NY Times article and Univ.Of Michigan case study case25. You can google to verify the facts that I mentioned.
Stock price information was obtained from SEC documents for Warner Lambert--where quarterly share price information is published with Financial data pdf.
Hi mtd, I agree with you that Pfizer (or other interested parties) want Amarin. The question now is how much they are willing to pay for Vascepa with or without NCE. Big Pharma knows the value of this noble medicine with no side effects and I believe that something is currently in the works that will be of great financial benefit to all of us Amarin stockholders, and most likely the reason for self imposed quiet period. We have to be patient just for a little longer. GLTA