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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

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  • mtdsus mtdsus Oct 6, 2012 1:02 PM Flag

    PFIZER top management NOT quick to see Big opportunities

    I arrive at 80$/share-- with 2 assumptions.
    1) FDA approval for 200-500mg Trigyl.population in Aug.2013
    2) Favorable Early results for Reduce-It study---like Jupiter study did to Crestor Sales from 2009-2011.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • At $80, that is 6X today's price or $12bn market cap!

      I would discount "reduce it" potential by 90% (it is 8 years away and there is no guarantee that the trial will succeed or they will get the FDA approval or what other developments will happen in the mkt by then)

      I would discount the Anchor potential by 50% (it is 2 years away and AMRN still has to sort out patents, distribution/mktg etc.)

      Then I will come up with a price what an acquirer will pay for AMRN today. Of course I will take $1bn from Marine included today even though it will take AMRN 2-3 years to reach that target.

      It will be hard for any acquirer to pay such a high price for a company the market is valuing today at $12.

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