For those of you who have run valuation for AMRN/Vascepa, have you considered cannibalization of high-end Omega 3 dietary supplement (DS), e.g., PlusEPA?
Vascepa is a truly unique specie in the Rx arena. It's derived from fish oil (a natural supply, can't be synthetically reproduced) and it has no or little formulation involved. As far as I know, there is only "one" method to purify/refine from low grade fish oil to 95% or higher though many refineries with API capabilities have their own IPs for their processes but these IPs don't have game changing differences. This means that the DS grade EPA is very much similar to Vascepa except for that they are not approved by FDA and have no clinical data substantiating any claims. However these will not prevent them from being sold in the retail stores as DS products for general wellness/health purposes. People who know the EPA story will buy them for reasons such as they can't afford Rx grade EPA, or can't get prescription/reimbursement for Rx grade EPA, or the products are very safe (why not taking it). So launching Vascepa is like launching a Rx product with "generic" or OTC versions are already on the market or potentially will flood the market soon after if the Rx is a success. With these considerations (together with the fish oil supply limit), does anyone still get $78 pps valuation?
The only thing AMRN can stop this happening for the time being is to lock up all the high end EPA suppliers. They have been trying to do so, however it is not possible for them to get every suppliers. Once Vascepa is launched and gained any traction in the market, more suppliers and DS manufacturers will get into this market. It's economics 101. I don't see how combo product can stop this either because they're not novel API/chemicals.