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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

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  • cazook12 cazook12 Oct 8, 2012 1:01 PM Flag

    Check out StreetInsider for much more detail on Canaccord's stellar forecast for AMRN

    Still at 78 LOW! need to be at 100pps. Everybody in biotech knows this a buyout candidate so someone is definately keeping the pps in check

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    • rotflmao at u! 1000pps. oh my, the drugs you are on must be great!

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • For those of you who have run valuation for AMRN/Vascepa, have you considered cannibalization of high-end Omega 3 dietary supplement (DS), e.g., PlusEPA?

      Vascepa is a truly unique specie in the Rx arena. It's derived from fish oil (a natural supply, can't be synthetically reproduced) and it has no or little formulation involved. As far as I know, there is only "one" method to purify/refine from low grade fish oil to 95% or higher though many refineries with API capabilities have their own IPs for their processes but these IPs don't have game changing differences. This means that the DS grade EPA is very much similar to Vascepa except for that they are not approved by FDA and have no clinical data substantiating any claims. However these will not prevent them from being sold in the retail stores as DS products for general wellness/health purposes. People who know the EPA story will buy them for reasons such as they can't afford Rx grade EPA, or can't get prescription/reimbursement for Rx grade EPA, or the products are very safe (why not taking it). So launching Vascepa is like launching a Rx product with "generic" or OTC versions are already on the market or potentially will flood the market soon after if the Rx is a success. With these considerations (together with the fish oil supply limit), does anyone still get $78 pps valuation?

      The only thing AMRN can stop this happening for the time being is to lock up all the high end EPA suppliers. They have been trying to do so, however it is not possible for them to get every suppliers. Once Vascepa is launched and gained any traction in the market, more suppliers and DS manufacturers will get into this market. It's economics 101. I don't see how combo product can stop this either because they're not novel API/chemicals.

      • 5 Replies to dbssanfran
      • dbs...

        Re the nutritional supplements...Vs Vascepa...

        First off there is only one product which is similar to Vascepa.. that product being the above mentioned PlusEPA, which is 95% EPA manufactured by Minami Nutrition and distributed by Garden of Life LLC...Garden of Life GoL)..has some history with the US Federal regulators who have filed complaints against the organization for unsubstantiated medical claims and false credentials claimed by the principals...GoL has paid fines and signed Consent agreements...

        The price of 4gms of PlusEPA is about $5.30. It is not cheap..While no one outside the company knows AMRN's pricing strategy, it is fair to say they will be able to sell Vascepa at fairly low markups because of the tremendous numbers of potential patients..In this way AMRN's business more resembles a soft drink company with many loyal customers, or a cigarette fast nickels beating slow dimes...

        We already know 10mil Vascepa patients would consume roughly 15% of the annual world fish oil production...These type of numbers represent very high barriers to entry to any competitor who is trying to play catch up....Production facilities become harder to find...As far as PlusEPA...though no doubt there will be those who seek it out, it will not be prescribed by MDs, nor are they going to tell their patients PlusEPA is a suitable substitute the way they do with Lovaza which is truly difficult to differentiate from fish oil.

        Finally I do think Minami will benefit from Lovaza...This is going to be a very big market...but Trying to find out anything about Minami is harder than gettingt an invitation to a Cosa Nostra least in English...

        ": ) JL

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • You need to see the barrier the FDA put up for a Taiwan company trying to import High % EPA through Miami. FDA's not allowing shipments into the country unless you happen to be FDA Vascepa related. Documents on FDA website, do general search for Icosapent Ethyl, click the Import Refusal Link. (Don't respond back without reading the FDA document)

        Generic/vitamin markets put on notice, high grade % EPA is a regulated FDA controlled drug, you can't sell it with a prescription and the name Vascepa.

        The majority of scripts that are written, the patients have insurance with minimal out of pocket cost. Not going to find that at GNC.


        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • DB
        Compare costs for a CAD patient.
        At for 4 gms you are taking a pretty strong dose ---you want to know its consistent .
        RX quality assures you that 4 gms of EPA is 4 gms of EPA ---can you say the same re DS quality.

        Re cost ---see my earlier post on how much I spend on PLUSEPA a day ---already over $5 a day --even at $7 a day for 4 gms I'll still go with Vascepa but with insurance co pays its likely to be lower then that.

        Sentiment: Buy

      • exactly, there will be no demand for high cost vasheepa as anyone can get the same product at Walgreens. joe and his friends are rich due to goofy bagholders.

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • db has a good point. Would like to hear other opinions on his post.


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